Episode 20: The Voting Rights Act's Demise & the 2030 Census, with Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics

We’ve talked a great deal about redistricting in the 2026 midterm election cycle — and with good reason. Six states have drawn new maps, and more could join in soon. But looking beyond 2026, major events could shake up redistricting and reapportionment. This includes the potential end of the Voting Rights Act as we know it and major shifts in population that will affect how many U.S. House seats each state has after the 2030 census.

To examine these topics, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Sean Trende, the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. Sean shared his deep well of knowledge about all things redistricting and reapportionment.

They led off the conversation by examining how the conservative-dominated Supreme Court of the United States seems likely to weaken or dismantle the Voting Rights Act in the case Louisiana v. Callais. Such a decision probably would not have a huge impact on the 2026 election, but it would open the door to a fresh round of redistricting before the 2028 cycle. A number of Republican-controlled states in the South would almost certainly redraw their maps to reduce or eliminate entirely many majority-Black seats, which could then spark Democratic-led states to redistrict in response.

From there, they discussed population projections for 2030 that suggest potential seat gains for big Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida, and seat losses for major Democratic-leaning states like California and New York. This could affect the battle for control of the House, but it will also have ramifications for the Electoral College in the 2032 presidential election. Red states would gain electoral votes based on the 2024 election results, and the campaign focus on the swing states would likely shift more to the Sun Belt trio of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

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