Episode 21: Kevin Kiley, Dan Osborn & Fake Independents, with Eric Cunningham of DDHQ

Last week, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he would seek reelection as an independent in California’s blue-leaning 6th District. Kiley, a two-term congressman, had been targeted by Golden State Democrats’ redistricting plan, which chopped up his red-leaning district into six pieces. But is Kiley really an IINO — independent in name only? He will continue to caucus with the GOP, and his decision to identify as an independent is clearly related to his tough electoral circumstances.

The thing is, Kiley is just the latest independent attempting to effectively run as a stand-in for one of the major parties. DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by DDHQ Election Analyst Eric Cunningham to discuss this phenomenon of “fake”, “pseudo-” or “quasi-” independent candidates. Also the editor-in-chief of Elections Daily, Cunningham has dug into this trend in downballot races.

They opened the conversation by exploring Kiley’s situation, including the electoral calculations that helped inform his decision to seek reelection as an independent. Then they dug into a high-profile example of a left-leaning independent: Dan Osborn, who is running for Senate in Nebraska in 2026. In 2024, Osborn ran as an independent in a fairly close race against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

Building on the Osborn example, the pair talked about three other left-leaning independents who are running for Senate in Montana (Seth Bodnar), South Dakota (Brian Bengs), and Idaho (Todd Achilles). They discussed the challenges these candidates face, including whether Democrats run their own candidate or back the independent. A one-on-one shot against the Republican nominee would at least somewhat improve these candidates’ already-low chance of success.

These four independents are just the latest to run for Senate in red states. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran in Utah; in 2020, Al Gross ran in Alaska; and in 2014, Greg Orman ran in Kansas. In a different-but-related category, both independents presently in the Senate each caucus with the Democrats — Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Still, Kiley is not the only GOP candidate to attempt such a move: California’s 2018 Insurance Commissioner race also featured an ex-Republican.

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