UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Kurt Ryman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, gives portfolio and macro positioning color. Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Equity Strategist, breaks down oil market moves and supply-chain risks. Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, explains recent U.S.-Iran actions and regional political fallout. They discuss market reactions, oil price drivers, and implications for positioning in short, sharp takes.

Dramatic Gulf events are shown to matter more for perception than for broad economic damage. Discussion covers how sustained oil price rises — not short spikes — affect inflation, especially in the US. Gasoline price jumps can shape affordability perceptions. Shipping route risks may raise freight costs but have limited consumer-price impact. Regional tourism and wealthy migration risks could hurt Gulf economies.

A market briefing that separates signal from noise across geopolitics, energy and AI. They examine the Iran strike and why the Strait of Hormuz matters for oil and LNG. Discussion covers OpenAI's massive private funding, the rise of large private firms versus public markets, and AI-driven layoffs. Concludes with the Fed outlook and a recommended balanced, thematic portfolio.

Solita Marcelli, UBS investment leader focused on macro and public/private allocation, and Henry McVey, KKR macro and private markets strategist, discuss market shifts and where to find opportunities. They cover AI's structural impact, private credit trends, sector rotation and high-grading portfolios. They also explore Asia and India as innovation and consumption stories.

Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy for the Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist for the Americas, discuss AI’s influence on credit markets. They compare tech issuance with bank supply. They examine investment-grade fundamentals, rising dispersion, February drivers of yields and sentiment, and CIO positioning favoring securitized over corporates.

Kevin Deneen, tech strategist on semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Kurt Ryman, macro head with historical and policy perspective on transformational innovation. They trace the microchip’s origins, the scale of transistor progress, policy and trade shifts like the CHIPS Act, and how chips now enable AI, autos, robotics, and healthcare.

A run-through of euro-area flash inflation releases and why headline readings are expected to be stable. A look at why Europe does not face an affordability crisis and how food and electricity prices are behaving. A review of US producer prices and PCE deflator components that matter for Fed debates. Notes on China easing renminbi forward rules and market reactions to a UK by-election result.

Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, offers macroeconomic analysis on growth, inflation, AI, trade policy, and monetary policy. He discusses U.S. growth tailwinds like AI capex and tax refunds. He examines tariff impacts and political timing risks. He weighs AI as a near-term capex driver versus uncertain long-run productivity and flags balance sheet and policy challenges for the Fed.

Discussion of the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep rates steady and its new six-month forward guidance. A look at the Bank of Korea adopting a Fed-style dot-plot forecast. Analysis of recent US tariff notices and the resulting policy uncertainty. Concerns about how renewed trade-policy uncertainty could freeze business decisions. Notes on jobless claims, central bank speeches, M3 money supply trends, and a brief aside on crypto.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling aftermath and next steps for U.S. trade policy, ongoing nuclear policy negotiations with Iran, and the focuses of President Trump during the State of the Union address. Host: Daniel Cassidy