UBS On-Air: Market Moves How should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
10 snips
Feb 26, 2026 
Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, offers macroeconomic analysis on growth, inflation, AI, trade policy, and monetary policy. He discusses U.S. growth tailwinds like AI capex and tax refunds. He examines tariff impacts and political timing risks. He weighs AI as a near-term capex driver versus uncertain long-run productivity and flags balance sheet and policy challenges for the Fed.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Multiple Structural Tailwinds Supporting 2026 Growth
- U.S. growth has multiple non-monetary tailwinds that should sustain acceleration through 2026.
- Torsten Slok highlights AI-driven data center build-out, an industrial reshoring renaissance, and tax refunds from the One Big Beautiful Bill as key drivers.
Tariffs Raise Uncertainty More Than Immediate Drag
- The new 15% Section 122 tariff raises effective average tariffs from 9% to ~14%, close to prior 16% levels so near-term macro drag should be modest.
- Torsten warns the bigger issue is elevated policy uncertainty because tariffs require congressional approval after 150 days.
Immigration Drop Explains Slower Job Growth
- Slower U.S. job growth mainly reflects a collapse in net immigration rather than weak labor demand.
- He cites net immigration dropping from ~3m to ~0.5m annually, lowering the break-even nonfarm payroll growth from ~200k to ~30k per month.