UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US President Trump’s State of the Union address defended the past year, seeking to reset the economic narrative of the past year. As such, it is not especially market relevant—although so much of a focus on the domestic economy (perhaps in response to recent approval rating numbers) might be important in shaping future policy.

Giuliano De Rossi, Head of Quants Equities at UBS CIO, leads quantitative equity strategies and data-driven portfolio construction. He explains what quant investing means in practice. He highlights how quant approaches add diversification. He explores novel data sources like NLP, satellite imagery and transaction data. He also challenges myths about black-box models and discusses mixing quant with fundamental styles.

US President Trump delivers a State of the Union address to Congress. Normally, these are not market moving, but investors will look for two things: will there be more tariff threats in the written remarks (which carry more weight than ad lib comments)?; how supportive of Trump will Congressional Republicans be? House Speaker Johnson suggested Congress would not vote to continue tariffs.

After spending the past few weeks fixated on AI disruption risk and macroeconomic data, investors were reminded Friday morning that tariffs are still a factor when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. Perhaps lost in that story was the release of Q4 GDP data. We discuss that all and what it means for the investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US trade policy uncertainty increased over the weekend. The Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs was not unexpected. US President Trump imposing a 10% universal tariff, then raising it to 15%, was less predictable. Details seem limited—will some goods be exempt? What about the revised NAFTA deal and imports from Mexico and Canada? What about trade deals involving lower tariffs (albeit not necessarily fully implemented) with countries like the UK? Administration officials are suggesting further tariffs against specific countries.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 22 February 2026.

US President Trump suggested that Iran had 10 or 15 days to do a deal, or face (unspecified) negative consequences. The US military presence in the Gulf means investors have given more weight to these remarks. Oil prices have moved higher—not dramatically, but enough that it might be visible to the US consumer in a few weeks. That has a bearing on inflation perception and the US affordability crisis.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on the credit market, an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes showcased a full range of opinion, with advocates of rate cuts, a long pause, and the possibility of rate increases. Were it not for the inability of the minutes to spell the word “labour” correctly, this level of disagreement would give the impression of a Bank of England rather than a Fed meeting. There was a consensus around stabilizing US labor markets. Overall, the minutes still allow for rate cuts, but an immediate easing is unlikely.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether we are entering into a new Emerging Markets super-cycle, and if a rise of Emerging Markets equates to a decline of US-exceptionalism.