UBS On-Air: Market Moves

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether we are entering into a new Emerging Markets super-cycle, and if a rise of Emerging Markets equates to a decline of US-exceptionalism.

The Financial Times reports ECB President Lagarde will leave office before their term ends—allowing a successor to be appointed before next year’s French presidential elections. This makes little difference to near-term policy—the ECB has adopted a stance of masterful inactivity. It might make a difference longer term. Lagarde’s successor could even be an economist (which would obviously be an excellent choice)—and the cumbersome nature of the policy council places extra emphasis on the leadership.

It’s been an active few weeks in financial markets as investors grapple with the potential for AI to disrupt business models across industries, along with whether the U.S. economy really is “running hot”. We discuss this all, and review CIO’s current allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK January labor market data was not especially surprising. Bonus payments were slightly weaker than expected, one of the unemployment measures (the ILO) was a fraction higher, but payrolls were stronger than expected. The ongoing rise in real incomes should offer some support to consumer spending (it is shifting savings rates, rather than incomes, that have been the restraint on spending).

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 16 February 2026.

US January consumer price inflation data had several moderating influences. Used car prices (the curse of every economist) fell sharply. The fictitious owners’ equivalent rent (the largest component in the calculation) helped pull the headline numbers lower. However, grocery prices are still rising, as are electricity prices. They may shape perceptions of affordability.

US January consumer price data is due. The focus should be on the details more than the headline. The largest part of the consumer price calculation is a fictitious housing price that people don’t pay. Such prices have no influence over perceptions of the affordability crisis.

In this episode, we discuss the municipal bond market and its, so far, strong start to the year. Plus, a look at California munis and the impact from the Billionaire tax. We'll assess the market right now and how investors should be positioned. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The January US employment report signaled sufficient strength to cool market expectations of an urgent US rate reduction. There is no evidence of political interference in the data. However, the data quality is questionable—survey response rates remain low, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost staff. There was a surprise sharp increase in foreign-born US worker employment and a drop in US-born US worker employment in the past two months. The 2025 data showed a broad-based decline in manufacturing employment, even in sectors protected by tariffs.

We get the delayed January US employment report and benchmark revisions for the past two years. For markets what is important is that economies respond to reality, not reported data. Whatever the employment reality was in 2025, it was consistent with a low fear of unemployment and US consumers willing to cut savings to pay for tariffs. Revising reported data to bring it closer to reality does not change that story.