The January US employment report signaled sufficient strength to cool market expectations of an urgent US rate reduction. There is no evidence of political interference in the data. However, the data quality is questionable—survey response rates remain low, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost staff. There was a surprise sharp increase in foreign-born US worker employment and a drop in US-born US worker employment in the past two months. The 2025 data showed a broad-based decline in manufacturing employment, even in sectors protected by tariffs.
UBS On-Air: Market Moves