UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Kurt Reiman, Head of US Fixed Income and US politics commentator. Dirk Effenberger, Head of Investment Risk and geopolitical analyst. They discuss the US‑Israel‑Iran strikes and near‑term market moves. They explore temporary versus prolonged energy shocks and Europe's high gas exposure. They outline defense and industrial winners from onshoring and shifting US foreign policy.

Discussion of how the US labor market shapes consumer confidence and spending. Consumers dipping into savings to cover tariffs and higher prices. Why current wage dynamics differ from 1970s inflation scares. The role of oil and gasoline price jumps in shaping perceptions of inflation. A look ahead at retail and auto sales as clues to household behaviour.

Laura Smith, UBS investment specialist focused on CIO views and earnings outlooks. Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets strategist covering geopolitics and energy impacts. They discuss Middle East tensions and oil risks. They cover recent EM volatility and rebound patterns. They review China Two Sessions priorities and sector preferences like tech, financials, and healthcare.

Jeannine Lennon, senior municipal strategist covering California issuers and policy risks, and Ted Galgano, senior municipal strategist focused on California fiscal and credit analysis. They walk through a compendium of 15 major California issuers and $200+ billion of debt. Topics include issuer risk splits, California’s revenue cyclicality and billionaire tax debate, and wildfire litigation and financial pressures tied to LADWP.

Discussion of a confirmed 15% US tariff and why markets had already priced it in. Examination of how tariff composition affects inflation persistence without detailing conclusions. Talk about household perceptions of affordability and the focus on everyday purchases. Coverage of a sudden gasoline price spike and signs of opportunistic pricing. Notes on China’s lower growth target and its export reliance.

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS CIO, offers rapid-fire perspectives on emerging markets. He explores why recent EM gains might last. He highlights external tailwinds like commodities and easy financial conditions. He flags risks such as policy shifts, U.S. monetary surprises, and concentration in sectors.

Discussion of US plans to insure and escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty around how that would work. Markets' muted reaction and rising oil prices are explored. Political sensitivity to gasoline costs among SUV-driving voters is highlighted. Historical memories of past oil shocks and how the modern energy landscape differs are examined.

Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, offers concise macro and market perspective. He discusses market reactions to Middle East events and why calm can follow shocks. He covers U.S. growth drivers and Fed policy expectations. He explores AI’s market impact and outlines asset allocation preferences including equities, credit, and precious metals as hedges.

Discussion of how rising oil and gas prices affect markets and the dollar. Examination of modern warfare’s effects via drones, cheap tech and social media. Analysis of long-term fiscal and military procurement pressures. Exploration of how conflict disrupts Gulf economic diversification, tourism and expatriate flows.

Kurt Ryman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, gives portfolio and macro positioning color. Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Equity Strategist, breaks down oil market moves and supply-chain risks. Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, explains recent U.S.-Iran actions and regional political fallout. They discuss market reactions, oil price drivers, and implications for positioning in short, sharp takes.