UBS On-Air: Market Moves Across the Pond: Strait Talk - Trump, Iran, and the global ripples
Mar 6, 2026
Kurt Reiman, Head of US Fixed Income and US politics commentator. Dirk Effenberger, Head of Investment Risk and geopolitical analyst. They discuss the US‑Israel‑Iran strikes and near‑term market moves. They explore temporary versus prolonged energy shocks and Europe's high gas exposure. They outline defense and industrial winners from onshoring and shifting US foreign policy.
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Immediate Energy Shock From Iran Strikes
- The US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran caused sharp energy-market moves, with oil up ~15% and gas up ~70% amid disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Dirk Effenberger links these moves to regional retaliation and transit disruption, explaining why European and Asian equities fell more than US markets.
Base Case Expects Temporary Energy Disruption
- Base case expects an energy supply disruption lasting beyond four weeks but likely temporary, with prices easing once transit disruptions and military action fade.
- Markets may remain volatile short-term but will refocus on strong economic fundamentals afterward.
Avoid Hasty Exits During Geopolitical Volatility
- Avoid panic selling; historical geopolitical shocks are usually short-lived unless they escalate into wider economic disruption.
- The UBS CIO view: stay invested and use volatility to rebalance toward diversified exposures and defensive hedges like gold.