Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Tyler Goodspeed, former CEA chair and current chief economist, and author of Recessions, challenges how economists view downturns. He argues recessions are shocks, not inevitable cycles. He explores pattern-seeking mistakes, the plucking model, historical cases like 1873 and 2008, supply shocks, policy mistakes that amplify downturns, and why recessions differ across countries.

Peter Conti-Brown, Wharton professor and financial regulation scholar, joins to dissect key shifts in bank supervision and Fed governance. They probe stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and whether tokenized money could displace deposits. Conversation also covers AI cyber risks like Claude Mythos, concentration threats to community banks, and how Substacks and networks reshape FinReg scholarship.

Basil Halperin, assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia who studies macroeconomics and AI, unpacks how transformative AI should affect real interest rates and why markets are skeptical. He critiques viral AI narratives, contrasts menu-cost pricing with Calvo models, and explores AI's fiscal, housing, and global implications in concise, probing conversations.

Rich Clarida, former Fed vice chair, Columbia economist and PIMCO managing director, returns to discuss monetary policy challenges. He covers why inflation stayed high, how central banks handle negative supply shocks, the role of nominal GDP as a cross-check, shifts in the Fed's balance sheet regime, and the potential of synthetic FOMC and AI simulations.

Kris Mitchener, a Santa Clara University economist and monetary historian who studies bimetallism, the gold standard, and central bank balance sheets. He recounts digging through archives and explains how bimetallism worked and why gold prevailed. He explores what anchors the price level, the politics behind monetary rules, and how central bank losses and credibility shape policy.

Mark Sobel, a veteran U.S. Treasury official now leading discussions at OMFIF, and Steve Kamin, an international macro expert formerly at the Fed, explore the outlook for dollar dominance. They debate near-term threats like tariffs, fiscal deficits, and strained alliances. They weigh stablecoins, Treasury FX report findings, tariff tools, and whether a second China shock is underway.

Ruth Judson, a monetary economist and longtime Federal Reserve Board official, shares stories from tracking counterfeit dollars and managing TIC data. She discusses why large bills signal international demand, cash’s role in inclusion and emergencies, and the rise of dollar-backed stablecoins. Short, vivid tales and technical insights make the conversation lively and sharp.

Bill Nelson, chief research officer and economist at the Bank Policy Institute and former Fed monetary official, joins to unpack the Fed's balance sheet future. He traces QE's ratchet effect on reserves. He discusses liquidity rules, supervisory interactions, concrete ways to shrink the Fed footprint, neutralizing TGA swings, and the Fed's profitability and interest-rate risks.

Neha Narula, MIT computer scientist leading the Digital Currency Initiative; Anders Brownworth, veteran crypto engineer who helped launch USDC; Daniel Aronoff, economist studying stablecoins and treasury markets. They unpack how stablecoins are minted, redeemed, and backed. They probe hidden plumbing, technical and operational risks, interoperability across chains, and implications for treasury markets and policy.

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, a UPenn professor known for quantitative macro, economic history, demographics and AI, explores rapid global fertility declines. He discusses housing’s role in family formation, shifting gender norms and competitive education pressures. He also covers AI’s economic implications and why the dollar keeps its edge in global finance.