Macro Musings with David Beckworth Jesús Fernández-Villaverde on the Quandary of Global Demographic Decline
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Mar 9, 2026 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, a UPenn professor known for quantitative macro, economic history, demographics and AI, explores rapid global fertility declines. He discusses housing’s role in family formation, shifting gender norms and competitive education pressures. He also covers AI’s economic implications and why the dollar keeps its edge in global finance.
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Global Fertility Is Below Replacement
- Global fertility has already fallen below replacement with world TFR ~2.15 and many countries far lower, showing decline is planetary not just rich-country phenomenon.
- Jesús cites Jamaica (TFR ~1.4) and warns Sub‑Saharan data likely understate rapid declines that will show by 2040–2045.
Three Accelerants Driving New Fertility Collapse
- Three leading hypotheses for post‑2013 ultra‑low fertility are high housing prices, changing gender/social norms, and an intensified education 'weapons race'.
- Jesús links housing affordability to low marriage/childbearing and positional schooling pressures in East Asia.
Use Housing Policy To Raise Fertility Modestly
- Move housing policy to increase young people's access to homes to nudge US fertility from ~1.6 toward 1.8–1.9.
- Jesús argues marginal housing affordability changes can meaningfully raise partnership formation and childbearing.