Macro Musings with David Beckworth Ruth Judson on Chasing Dollars Around the World
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Mar 30, 2026 Ruth Judson, a monetary economist and longtime Federal Reserve Board official, shares stories from tracking counterfeit dollars and managing TIC data. She discusses why large bills signal international demand, cash’s role in inclusion and emergencies, and the rise of dollar-backed stablecoins. Short, vivid tales and technical insights make the conversation lively and sharp.
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COVID Cash Spike Was Mixed Foreign Domestic And Precautionary
- During COVID roughly a third of the currency spike was foreign, a third domestic, and a third banks hoarding vault cash for precautionary reasons.
- Small-denomination growth slowed while large-denomination notes kept rising, implying weaker domestic transactional use but persistent international demand.
Surveys Miss A Large Unobserved Stock Of Cash
- Payments surveys undercount cash because many holders (shoebox cash, unbanked, privacy seekers) don't participate in surveys, leaving a mystery stock of currency.
- Ruth relies on anecdotal reports and denomination patterns to infer hidden cash holdings outside official surveys.
Preserve Cash To Protect Inclusion And Privacy
- Avoid pushing a fully cashless society because it risks exclusion of older and remote populations and erodes privacy-sensitive payment options.
- Preserve physical cash and offline payment capabilities as social insurance and privacy safeguards.