Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Chris Meissner, a UC Davis economist and economic historian who wrote One From Many, offers a sweep of globalization’s past and present. He traces 19th‑century drivers, interwar collapse, Bretton Woods, and late 20th‑century hyperglobalization. He tackles the China shock, supply‑chain interdependence, the Great Financial Crisis’ drag on trade, and whether the world is moving away from integration.

Raghuram Rajan, former RBI governor and IMF chief economist now leading the Group of Thirty, reflects on central banking and financial stability. He revisits his 2005 warning on hidden tail risks. He explains QE’s ratcheting effect on the Fed’s balance sheet, how bank liabilities shift under QE, and policy tools like term deposits and pricing support to curb liquidity dependence.

Andrew Martinez, former U.S. Treasury economist and assistant professor at American University, blends forecasting, time-series econometrics, and policy analysis. He explores the state of macro forecasting, AI’s promise and pitfalls for turning points, why policymakers value simple interpretable models, the SEP’s role in monetary surprises, and the construction of an NGDP expectations gap.

Dan Awrey, Cornell law professor and author of Beyond Banks, explores the future of money and payments. He discusses the shadow monetary system, stablecoin fragility, and why access to core infrastructure matters. He outlines proposals for master accounts, interoperability, and regulatory fixes. The conversation highlights trade-offs between innovation, stability, and who ultimately backs non-bank money.

Scott Sumner, monetary economist known for advocating nominal GDP targeting, shares his post-Mercatus work and blogging. He discusses why nominal GDP matters, how QE and Fed strategy shaped recoveries, and critiques the Fed's framework and risks to central bank independence. Short, sharp takes on level targeting, pandemic policy, and why some QE moves were more effective than others.

Tyler Muir, a UCLA finance professor and Fisher Black Prize winner, explains why quantitative easing reshaped bond markets. He discusses how QE works in crises, the new "Tyler Rule" for balance-sheet use, QE’s role during COVID, and how purchases and announcements affect markets. Short, clear takes on market structure, intermediaries, and the risks of unwinding large Fed balance sheets.

Richard Berner, former director of the Office of Financial Research, dives into critical themes affecting our financial landscape. He discusses the fragility of global liquidity, highlighting how rising sovereign debt complicates stability. Berner also addresses the growth of private credit, its role in recent banking turmoil, and the implications of fiscal dominance—raising concerns about market functioning. With insights from his extensive career, he advocates for better data on private funds to enhance oversight and reduce risks.

Aaron Klein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution specializing in financial technology and payments, discusses pressing issues in payments and QE. He highlights the US's lag in real-time payment systems compared to other countries and the inequality fostered by delayed funds. Klein critiques the FedNow rollout and its limited consumer access. He also links post-COVID housing price surges to Fed mortgage purchases, examining the political implications of rising prices for younger generations. His recommendations focus on improving Fed transparency and future crisis management.

Per Åsberg Sommar, a senior advisor at the Swedish central bank, dives into the evolution of the Riksbank, where he played a key role. He discusses the transition to inflation targeting in 1995 and the historical context of Sweden's monetary policy. Per provides insights into the Riksbank's innovative Deposit Requirement Facility designed to bolster capital. He also explores how central banks globally are shifting towards demand-driven systems, highlighting the interaction between policies and market behaviors.

David Beckworth and Sam Alburger reflect on a dynamic year in macroeconomics, highlighting standout episodes and engaging debates. They explore the implications of nominal GDP targeting and the Fed's evolving policies. A lively discussion on historical economist panels and the impact of AI in economic analysis emerges, alongside insights from recent Bitcoin policy discussions. The duo shares their favorite and top downloaded episodes, offering a retrospective view on a transformative year in the macro landscape.