Know More. Risk Better.

Zachary Griffiths, CreditSights macro and credit strategist, offers a market and systemic-risk lens. Andrew Hedlund, LFI managing editor and leveraged finance analyst, provides on-the-ground deal and BDC color. They debate whether private credit is in a true reset or a cyclical correction. They cover BDC redemptions, software and AI worries, underwriting shifts, deal flow changes, and who actually holds the risk.

Marc Heimowitz, creditor advocacy leader; Raff Ferraioli, bankruptcy litigator; Ian Feng, covenant specialist; Mark Leitner, restructuring analyst. They tackle liability management exercises and their fallout. They debate venue fights and contested DIP finance. They parse OID disputes, uptier litigation and evolving third-party release and exculpation law.

Laura Ullrich, Director of Economic Research at Indeed Hiring Lab who studies hiring and job postings. She discusses slowing U.S. job growth and healthcare‑driven sector imbalances. She unpacks low‑hire, low‑fire dynamics and how AI shifts tech hiring toward senior roles. She also covers timing and ROI risks of AI investment and implications for new graduates.

Peter Agra, LevFin Insights editor tracking secondary market rotations and refinancing trends. Andy Belton, CreditSights Europe lead on chemicals and structural oversupply challenges. Andrew Brady, CreditSights US head focused on petrochemical feedstock dynamics. They discuss Middle East-driven oil spikes and feedstock mismatches. They cover Europe’s chronic oversupply and names under pressure. They examine investor rotations into cyclical chemicals.

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mihir Trivedi, Senior Analyst for European Transportation, about the fast-moving Middle East conflict and its implications for global aviation and European credit. They explain why Middle Eastern airspace is a critical corridor linking Europe and North America to Asia, and how widespread airspace closures and airport disruptions have triggered mass cancellations, longer reroutings, and higher operating costs that are ultimately passed through to consumers. The discussion covers near-term demand effects, including weaker passenger numbers, deferred business travel, and reduced load factors, alongside medium-term implications such as higher airfares, capacity being redirected to other routes like the transatlantic market, and a potential shift toward more direct ultra long-haul flights. They also assess financial pressure points for airlines, focusing on jet fuel as the largest cost line, the importance of hedging into 2026, and how fleet efficiency can create winners and losers as disruptions extend. The episode concludes with relative value views across airports and airlines, highlighting Heathrow’s constraints and exposure versus more defensive alternatives, and reiterating a preference for higher-quality balance sheets in the airline space.

Iris Shi, a senior banks analyst tracking card payments and consumer lending trends. Peter Simon, head of U.S. banks analyzing bank earnings and underwriting vintages. They debate the consumer puzzle with data on employment and elevated balance sheets. They explore credit vintage stabilization, spending bifurcation across income tiers, the student loan delinquency spike, and underappreciated regulatory and generational risks.

Lauren Gilbert, political-risk analyst at GeoQuant, outlines elevated unrest and modelled tail risks in Iran. Regis Châtelier, EM sovereign strategist at CreditSights, maps market exposures and sovereign spread complacency. They discuss Strait of Hormuz blockade scenarios, Iran’s role supplying oil and drones, U.S. military signaling, and shifting EM investment opportunities.

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, the discussion explores how Asian investors are navigating global credit markets amid volatile US rates, shifting macro expectations, and rapid AI-driven investment. Zachary Griffiths and Zerlina Zhang unpack key takeaways from Zerlina’s recent roadshow across Greater China and Taiwan, covering investor sentiment on Fed policy and US growth, yield-seeking behavior, private credit contagion risks, AI capex trends, Japan’s fiscal outlook and JGB volatility, and the growing appeal of Asia local currency bonds, particularly Australian dollar debt. Gain timely, on-the-ground insights to help investors better assess cross-market risks and identify opportunities in an increasingly uncertain global environment. 

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mary Pollock, Head of Real Estate, about the European real estate sector's outlook for 2026. They explore the current stage of the recovery cycle, noting that commercial real estate valuations reached their trough in mid-2024 and are now in early recovery phase, though slower than post-GFC. The conversation examines subsector dynamics, with offices remaining the most challenged while residential and logistics show strength. Mary discusses the impact of rising government bond yields—with 10-year bunds up nearly 80 basis points to 2.85%—and how this affects fundraising and valuations despite improved rate stability. They analyze the critical shift in capital allocation, as companies move from defense mode to investment and shareholder returns, including share buybacks at Vonovia, Bouwinvest, and Aroundtown. The discussion covers primary market strength, with riskier crossover names and hybrids seeing strong reception and minimal new issue concession. Mary outlines her cautious outlook on credit metrics, expecting flat-to-higher LTVs and weaker interest coverage ratios due to refinancing legacy low-cost debt. The episode concludes with positioning recommendations, favoring the 5-7 year maturity bucket and specific outperforms including Heimstad Boesdad, VGP, and Blackstone Property Partners Europe, while cautioning on Austria. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on European real estate credit strategy for 2026.

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, speaks with Todd Duvick, Head of Autos, and Jim Williamson, Senior Autos Analyst covering Europe, about the global automotive sector outlook for 2026. They explore vehicle sales forecasts, with both US and Europe expecting flat to slightly higher volumes around 16 million units, constrained by affordability despite lower interest rates and new tax deductions. The conversation examines the deregulation wave, including Europe's pullback from the 2035 EV-only deadline to a 90% emissions reduction target and the US removal of consumer EV tax credits, saving GM $750 million annually. They analyze Chinese competition dynamics, with BYD's potential US manufacturing and government interventions to stabilize pricing. The discussion covers margin trajectories, with single-digit operating margins becoming the new normal, offset by declining capex as the investment super cycle ends. They also address credit rating outlooks, highlighting Ford's fallen angel risk, Honda's margin challenges, and Renault as a rising star candidate. The episode concludes with investment recommendations: VW senior bonds for Europe and Ford for tactical opportunities. Listen now for expert insights on automotive credit positioning.