Real Estate Rundown: Tracking Europe's Recovery

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mary Pollock, Head of Real Estate, about the European real estate sector's outlook for 2026. They explore the current stage of the recovery cycle, noting that commercial real estate valuations reached their trough in mid-2024 and are now in early recovery phase, though slower than post-GFC. The conversation examines subsector dynamics, with offices remaining the most challenged while residential and logistics show strength. Mary discusses the impact of rising government bond yields—with 10-year bunds up nearly 80 basis points to 2.85%—and how this affects fundraising and valuations despite improved rate stability. They analyze the critical shift in capital allocation, as companies move from defense mode to investment and shareholder returns, including share buybacks at Vonovia, Bouwinvest, and Aroundtown. The discussion covers primary market strength, with riskier crossover names and hybrids seeing strong reception and minimal new issue concession. Mary outlines her cautious outlook on credit metrics, expecting flat-to-higher LTVs and weaker interest coverage ratios due to refinancing legacy low-cost debt. The episode concludes with positioning recommendations, favoring the 5-7 year maturity bucket and specific outperforms including Heimstad Boesdad, VGP, and Blackstone Property Partners Europe, while cautioning on Austria. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on European real estate credit strategy for 2026.