Chemicals: Capacity, Credit Stress & Middle East

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Zachary Griffiths speaks with Andrew Brady, Head of US Basic Industries, Andy Belton, Head of European Basic Industries, and Peter Agra, Managing Editor for Secondary Markets at LevFin Insights, about the embattled chemicals sector navigating multiple headwinds in 2026. They dive deep into the Middle East conflict's impact, analyzing how oil price spikes and supply disruptions are creating feedstock cost mismatches and the credit implications for US versus European producers. The conversation explores the structural challenges facing European chemicals, with persistent oversupply requiring 800,000 tons of PVC capacity closures and companies like INEOS Group and Quattro trading at distressed levels amid 2027 maturity concerns. They also discuss the Bayer-Monsanto litigation saga, examining the Supreme Court case, proposed settlement structure, and Trump administration's glyphosate defense exemption reshaping risk premiums. The episode concludes with insights on investor rotation from software into cyclical chemicals exposure, including the limited impact of Germany's $500 billion infrastructure package and secondary market dynamics. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on chemicals sector credit views and strategic positioning opportunities amid unprecedented volatility.