Barclays Brief

In recent months, market narratives have been dominated by geopolitical shocks, energy volatility and higher interest rates. But step back, and a much bigger story is coming into focus.Advanced economies may be on the cusp of a new, historic investment cycle – one with the potential to rival the great build‑outs of the past, from 19th‑century railroads to the Apollo missions and the information‑technology boom of the 1990s.While much of the capex narrative has focused on AI and the race by hyperscalers to build faster, more efficient models, this is only one part of the picture. Energy systems, electrification, defence spending and economic resilience are all reinforcing the scale of capital deployment now underway.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Christian Keller, Chief Economist at Barclays, to examine how 150 years of investment data show that long periods of under‑investment are often followed by powerful capex cycles and why after two decades of weakness, the latest numbers point to the early stages of one with historic potential.Listeners can hear more on this topic:​•Episode 22: Processing uncertainty in real time•Episode 17: Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?•Episode 7: US dollar & the AI capex cycleClients can read more on Barclays Live:•Supersize me: The coming investment cycle•Cracks, but not a crater (Q2 Global Outlook)•Defence Quarterly: a 10-year cycle still to come?Important Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

Hamza Hoummady, Head of EMEA Rates Trading with decades in markets, breaks down a turbulent stretch for European rates. He recounts why energy shocks and fast‑moving headlines sent gilt and German yields soaring. He also explores how AI-driven news flow, crowded positioning and central bank messaging combine to amplify volatility.

Alex Altmann, Head of Equity Tactical Strategies, offers market analysis and tactical views. He walks through hidden sector rotations and liquidity-driven unwinds. He discusses commodities as a multi‑year thematic amid US‑China shifts. He outlines why AI capex, strong corporate margins, and US energy could keep US equities resilient.

Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Chairman of Global Research at Barclays and macro/market strategist, explains how markets process new uncertainty. He discusses oil price dynamics and their inflation implications. He outlines why private credit risks are slow moving, and why AI-driven capex and adoption could anchor long-term productivity.

Emily Field, a US biopharmaceuticals equity research analyst focused on obesity therapeutics, breaks down the market transformation driven by GLP-1s. She explains why oral pills will expand the treated population. She discusses pricing pressure, direct‑to‑consumer moves and who might enter the market. She flags commercial capability and upcoming launches as key milestones.

Raimo Lenschow, Head of North American Software Research at Barclays, provides expert analysis on software sector shifts. He discusses what triggered the recent sell‑off and how generative AI is redefining the software stack. Raimo contrasts vulnerable point solutions with durable platforms and explains why long contract timelines and data moats matter as AI reshapes where value accrues.

George Featherstone, European Industrials Research Analyst focused on energy, manufacturing and infrastructure. He discusses signs of stabilisation in Europe’s industrials. He covers consumer and housing green shoots, rising demand for machinery and grid investment, and persistent structural headwinds like high energy costs and global competition.

Yun Zhang, Co-Head of FIC Trading Asia Pacific and Macro Structured Notes lead, offers sharp FX, rates and macro market insight. He breaks down why Japan’s election reshapes carry trades, bond markets and BoJ options. Short segments cover fiscal timing, FX intervention risk around 160 yen, who stands to gain from a weaker yen, and a 90-day watchlist of market catalysts.

Amos Fletcher, a European metals and mining research analyst, outlines why metals are back in focus. He breaks down macro and structural drivers behind recent price swings. Copper’s role in electrification, rising M&A activity, and the forces behind gold’s rally are highlighted in short, sharp discussions.

Adeel Khan, Global Head of Markets at Barclays, provides cross-asset perspective on macro, equities and credit. He discusses why the global backdrop is more resilient than headlines imply. He explains the shift in tech from infrastructure to AI applications. He outlines FX dynamics including a multi-year dollar correction. He previews credit conditions and three bold predictions for 2026.