Barclays Brief Processing uncertainty in real time
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Mar 10, 2026 
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Chairman of Global Research at Barclays and macro/market strategist, explains how markets process new uncertainty. He discusses oil price dynamics and their inflation implications. He outlines why private credit risks are slow moving, and why AI-driven capex and adoption could anchor long-term productivity.
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Focus On Transmission Not Spot Prices
- Markets react to transmission mechanisms rather than headline levels like spot oil prices.
- Ajay Rajadhyaksha focuses on duration and magnitude of effects (e.g., oil staying >$100 for months) to shift economic forecasts.
AI Won't Drive This Cycle's Big Deflation
- AI is transformational but unlikely to be a deflationary force that materially alters this business cycle's inflation path.
- The Fed will ignore one-off price moves unless medium-term inflation expectations re-anchor higher.
Past Oil Shocks Often Proved Temporary
- Historical oil shocks vary widely; recent spikes (June 2025, 2019) were temporary as production resumed quickly.
- Ajay contrasts those with the first Gulf War when oil doubled over months despite a big one-day fall at war start.