Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Porter (BA Analytics) — data-driven analyst focused on models, CLV, and market structure. Joey Knish — college football bettor known for sharp commentary and strategy. They tear into viral Twitter betting tips. They dissect steam-fading myths, bankroll withdrawal advice, CLV debates, market timing limits, and pricing glitches. Quick, sharp takes on why those hot takes often mislead bettors.

A deep dive into how to price a season-long perfect game prop using probability math. Short lessons on converting betting lines to implied odds and building a two-part framework of chances versus conversion. Historical frequency of near-perfect games and how small conversion rates drive season probabilities. Stress-tests of bullish scenarios and guidance for more disciplined market pricing.

Discussion of a controversial market settlement that sparked public outrage and questions about market rules. A debate on whether prediction platforms should list death-related or high-risk markets. New Massachusetts regulation requiring sportsbooks to notify bettors when accounts are limited. Odd pricing on upcoming MLB novelty markets and why books offer creative props.

Mike (Mr. PeanutBettor), an experienced pro bettor and ex-trader, breaks down a wild DraftKings pricing error that briefly listed every golfer at -10000. Short, chaotic cashouts and market mechanics get dissected. The conversation also covers trading failures, sportsbook staffing risks, and a heated debate over bankroll management.

A pro bettor unpacks why prediction markets draw skepticism and which critiques don't hold up. He explains how pricing, liquidity, and incentives actually work. Differences between prediction platforms and traditional sportsbooks are compared. Signs to watch for market manipulation, informational spikes, and when trading becomes an information battle are highlighted.

Team USA shocks Canada in the men’s hockey gold medal game and we break down everything — the biggest moments, the coaching decisions, the betting market movement before puck drop, and how the result impacted bettors on both sides. We react to the game itself, the pregame narratives that didn’t hold up, and what this outcome says about the USA vs Canada rivalry going forward. Plus, we dive into the stat making the rounds that 57% of bettors are female — what it actually means, how it’s being interpreted, and whether gambling media is telling the story correctly. And of course, Gambling Twitter drama is back. We unpack the latest beef, subtweets, and industry shots that have reignited timelines this week. Circle Back is hosted by Jacob Gramegna and features professional sports bettor and CEO of The Hammer, Rob Pizzola, basketball originator Kirk Evans, and sophisticated square Geoff Fienberg. The crew reacts to the biggest stories in sports betting, gambling media, and the broader betting industry every week on Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1pm ET and Friday at 8am ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🟢 Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer 📊 Building in prediction markets? Get your trial API key for unified prediction market and sportsbook data: https://bit.ly/4blx5BR LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Kirk - https://x.com/KirkEvans0 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Gold Medal Game: Men's Olympic Hockey gold medal game reaction 26:22 - Stock Down: Recreational sportsbook stocks are falling 39:27 - Banned Ads: Twitter bans paid partnerships in gambling 55:36 - PMs x Cash Games: Predictions markets and cash games 1:01:27 - 57% Female: Are there more women in betting than men? 1:06:34 - "Booked": Gambling Twitter drama is reignited 1:22:57 - VIP Treatment: Amanda Vance's VIP picks 1:33:01 - 0-83: The worst day of picks in tout history? #SportsBetting #Betting #circleback #bettingtips #bettingstrategy #bettingstrategies #bettingadvice #gambling Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

They used AI to turn a year of audience comments into the ten critical questions every serious sports bettor should face. Conversations cover bankroll and account management, building and testing predictive models, and recognizing when your process is failing. They debate practical AI tools and the risks of overrelying on them. They also dissect what a sustainable betting edge looks like and why smart people still lose.

Social media is not making you a better sports bettor. It might be doing the exact opposite. Today’s algorithms reward outrage, certainty, and constant engagement, not accuracy, long-term profitability, or nuance. The more you interact with bold takes and confident predictions, the more the algorithm feeds you the loudest voices in the room. In sports betting, that creates a dangerous feedback loop that can quietly shape how you think about edge, bankroll management, and what winning actually looks like. Professional sports bettor Rob Pizzola breaks down how algorithm-driven content is influencing bettors, why confidence online is often mistaken for competence, and the major red flags to watch for before trusting someone in this space. If you believe consuming more betting content automatically makes you sharper, this conversation may change your perspective and help you separate real signal from performative noise before it costs you money. 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday at 1 pm ET and additional content Wednesdays at pm, ranging from interviews with industry experts to educational videos! 🟢 Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer 📊Scale with PRO. Apply for a Betstamp PRO Props Screen demo → https://betstamp.com/hammer LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola THE HAMMER'S CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🎧 https://www.youtube.com/@CirclesOffHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ #SportsBetting #Betting #NFL #bettingtips #bettingstrategy #bettingstrategies #bettingadvice #gambling The Hammer Betting Network is an industry leader in providing trusted sports betting content. Visit The Hammer HQ's channel page for access to all of the network's YouTube channels, as well as more content from this channel specifically. Check out our website at https://thehammer.bet/ to find all of The Hammer's content, including videos and articles. Title: How Social Media Is Making You a Worse Sports Bettor | Presented by Kalshi Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Isaac Rose-Berman, gambling researcher and responsible gaming advocate, joins to debate ethics and industry responsibility. They unpack the Hornets cash-out controversy and whether large hedges make sense. Practical priming tactics for real accounts are discussed, plus how prediction-market dynamics and sportsbook hedging shape liquidity and behavior.

Geoff Fienberg, sophisticated square and Chargers superfan, and Kirk Evans, NBA analyst and cultural commentator, jump into the chaos around Super Bowl LX and the NFL MVP drama. They dissect Seattle’s defensive dominance, Kenneth Walker III’s MVP run, the tight Stafford-Maye vote, halftime market oddities, athlete-betting optics, and proposals to curb NBA tanking.