Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

How Bad Is This MLB Perfect Game Market, Really? | Presented by Kalshi

Mar 4, 2026
A deep dive into how to price a season-long perfect game prop using probability math. Short lessons on converting betting lines to implied odds and building a two-part framework of chances versus conversion. Historical frequency of near-perfect games and how small conversion rates drive season probabilities. Stress-tests of bullish scenarios and guidance for more disciplined market pricing.
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INSIGHT

Price Rare Event Props As Chances Times Conversion

  • Convert season-long rare-event props into 'chances' times 'conversion' to get a grounded probability.
  • Rob Pizzola defines a chance as a game perfect through six and uses historical frequencies to anchor the math.
ANECDOTE

Historic Perfects Don't Reflect Today's Game

  • Rob explains why using all-time perfect-game counts is misleading, noting rules and usage changes since early 1900s.
  • He references starters finishing games, absent modern bullpens, and different run environments as reasons.
INSIGHT

Define A Real Perfect Game Chance As Perfect Through Six

  • Use 'perfect through six innings' as a practical definition of a real perfect-game chance.
  • Rob cites ~5.8 such bids per season, ~2 through seven, and ~0.9 through eight based on the last decade.
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