Defining a 'Chance' for Perfect Games

When DraftKings posted +225 on there being a perfect game during the MLB season, gambling Twitter immediately called it one of the worst prices ever hung. But most of the outrage focused on the wrong reasons. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why the reaction missed the mark, walks through the probability calculation step by step, converts the implied odds properly, and uses base rate math to estimate the true price of this season-long prop in the Major League Baseball betting market. Along the way, he explains what this says about sportsbook pricing and how to think about market mispricing more intelligently.

Rather than piling on, Rob treats this as a sports betting analysis exercise — showing viewers how to approach niche markets, sanity-check numbers, and build a number from scratch. If you’ve ever wondered how to price something like a perfect game prop yourself, this is a full breakdown of the math and assumptions behind it on the Circles Off channel.

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