Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Exposing The Worst Betting Advice We Found On Twitter | Presented by Kalshi

Mar 6, 2026
Guest
Joey Knish
Guest
Porter (BA Analytics)
Porter (BA Analytics) — data-driven analyst focused on models, CLV, and market structure. Joey Knish — college football bettor known for sharp commentary and strategy. They tear into viral Twitter betting tips. They dissect steam-fading myths, bankroll withdrawal advice, CLV debates, market timing limits, and pricing glitches. Quick, sharp takes on why those hot takes often mislead bettors.
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INSIGHT

Why Fading Steam In Midmajors Fails

  • Fading sharp steam in low-liquidity mid-major college basketball is riskier than it sounds.
  • Porter and Chinamaniac explain syndicates know true move ranges and will bet numbers back, so amateurs rarely hit the bottom dip.
ADVICE

Stop Withdrawing Profits Instead Of Scaling Units

  • Don’t build bankroll strategy around constantly withdrawing profits as a safety net.
  • Joey Knish and Porter say you must first have a winning method; withdrawing prevents proper unit scaling and masks losing strategies.
INSIGHT

CLV Matters But Post Betting Is Overrated

  • Closing Line Value (CLV) is a strong long-term indicator, but claiming frequent post-time wins is misleading for most bettors.
  • Panel cautions that market post liquidity favors top pros, so claiming post-time superiority is often overconfident.
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