Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

A lively breakdown of the surprisingly strong March jobs report and why the headline number may mislead. Discussion of payroll revisions, wage trends, falling hours, and weak household survey signals. A new participation-adjusted Sahm indicator gets unveiled. Market risk flags include widening high-yield spreads and inflation breakevens. Listeners’ questions on labor participation, fiscal risks, and an uneven, bimodal economy are explored.

Kevin Fagan, senior commercial real estate economist at Moody's Analytics, draws on CMBS and banking-focused CRE analysis. He discusses why office recovery is uneven, multifamily faces supply-driven strains, and retail shows a quiet comeback. The conversation highlights price dispersion across property types and how maturities, workouts, and capital shifts shape near-term risks.

Shandor Whitcher, an economist who built a random forest-based recession probability model, explains his approach and forecasts. He walks through which indicators matter most and recent model updates. The conversation covers market moves since the Iran conflict, the surprising role of the yield curve, and what would realistically tip the economy into recession.

They unpack market turmoil after the Middle East conflict, including stock drops, rising yields and surging oil. They debate how prolonged high oil prices could reshape forecasts and raise recession odds. They explore fiscal offsets, inflation pressures, Fed signals, and scenarios where oil spikes trigger deeper economic pain.

A brisk conversation about geopolitics and how Middle East tensions could ripple through markets. A skeptical look at AI hype, possible economic paths, and what valuations might really mean. A stark focus on generational injustice: how rising asset prices, housing unaffordability, and policy choices are shifting wealth and opportunity away from young people.

Chris Lafakis, an energy and geopolitics economist, and Matt Colyar, an inflation analyst, break down the recent Middle East supply shock and the sharp oil price surge. They discuss inflation readings, consumer spending weakness, and scenarios for how the conflict and oil disruptions could reshape growth and prices in the months ahead.

Dante DeAntonio, economist specializing in labor-market data and productivity, breaks down weak February payrolls and shifting household survey mechanics. He discusses industry pain, rising long-term unemployment, and the puzzling productivity gains alongside flat hiring. The conversation also covers how recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil toward $90 and the possible economic fallout.

A lively debate about AI’s near-term economic paths and four modeled scenarios. They compare quantitative forecasts with darker narratives and argue over rapid diffusion versus slow adoption. The team weighs job-market upheaval, tech-led stock bubbles, concentration risks, and whether AI firms could become systemic threats.

Jared Bernstein, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and economic commentator; Jim Parrott, housing policy expert at the Urban Institute. They debate the fallout from a major Supreme Court tariff ruling, dissect Q4 GDP and labor-market signals, probe persistent housing supply shortfalls and bipartisan fixes, and weigh AI’s promise and risks for productivity and jobs.

Matt Collier, an inflation and price-stats economist, and Dante D'Antonio, a labor market specialist, join to unpack January’s payroll and inflation reads. They debate seasonal quirks, the birth–death model, payroll revisions, and unusual sector patterns. Then they walk through CPI drivers like shelter, medical care, energy, vehicle prices, and how CPI and PCE differ.