Raphael Brun-Aguerre

Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Euro area economist, explore upcoming inflation trends. They discuss how global core inflation has dropped to 2.1% and ponder whether this disinflation will stick around. Hanson delves into U.S. CPI data influenced by the government shutdown, while Brun-Aguerre highlights Europe’s wage trends impacting inflation. The duo also examines the implications of tariffs and trade dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic, plus the risk of AI-related price shifts.

Nora Szentivanyi chats with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist and policy analyst focused on euro-area inflation and wages. They dissect the latest CPI reports, highlighting persistent core inflation and its global impact on services. Raphael explains the dynamics of euro-area services and wage pressures, while discussing tariff effects on core goods and the influence of China. They also explore fluctuations in energy prices and their implications for inflation, along with the significance of food inflation in monetary policy decisions.

Michael Hanson, U.S. inflation and labor markets specialist at J.P. Morgan, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre, euro-area inflation expert, discuss shifting global inflation patterns. They explore divergent 2026 outlooks, a likely US rebound driven by goods and tariff effects, euro-area disinflation signals from HICP and wages, and how commodities, FX and price resetting shape near‑term inflation dynamics.

In this enlightening discussion, Michael Hanson, a sharp economist specializing in US and Canada analyses at J.P. Morgan, joins Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an expert on Euro-area economic trends. They delve into how May's softer inflation might not last, with tariffs pushing US core inflation to rise. The duo also explores the Euro area's promising shift toward a stable 2% core HICP, examining trade dynamics and geopolitical influences on global inflation. Expect insights on the disinflationary effects of US trade policy and central bank responses amid ever-evolving economic landscapes.

Allan Monks, UK economist at J.P. Morgan who tracks UK inflation and gas sensitivity. Raphael Brun-Aguerre, euro area economist focused on energy pass-through and ECB implications. Michael Hanson, U.S. economist covering CPI/PCE and Fed dynamics. They discuss the near-term headline impact of higher oil, euro area gas effects, nuanced U.S. CPI/PCE pass-through, risks to core inflation, and central bank reactions.