Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
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Feb 4, 2026 Michael Hanson, U.S. inflation and labor markets specialist at J.P. Morgan, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre, euro-area inflation expert, discuss shifting global inflation patterns. They explore divergent 2026 outlooks, a likely US rebound driven by goods and tariff effects, euro-area disinflation signals from HICP and wages, and how commodities, FX and price resetting shape near‑term inflation dynamics.
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Global Core Inflation To Rebound
- Global core inflation fell sharply in Q4 but is expected to rebound toward ~3% in early 2026.
- The podcast argues this reflects temporary softening and divergent regional paths ahead.
Euro Area Core Trending Toward 2%
- Raphael Brun-Aguerre sees Euro-area core inflation moving toward 2% as services inflation and wage pressures ease.
- He cautions methodological changes in HICP seasonal adjustment but calls the print broadly consistent.
US CPI Momentum Likely To Firm
- Michael Hanson expects US CPI momentum to firm in early 2026 due to data distortions and seasonal rebounds.
- He highlights delayed collection from the government shutdown and a six‑month panel reset hitting in April.