Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
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Sep 26, 2025 Nora Szentivanyi chats with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist and policy analyst focused on euro-area inflation and wages. They dissect the latest CPI reports, highlighting persistent core inflation and its global impact on services. Raphael explains the dynamics of euro-area services and wage pressures, while discussing tariff effects on core goods and the influence of China. They also explore fluctuations in energy prices and their implications for inflation, along with the significance of food inflation in monetary policy decisions.
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European Services Are Firm But Wage Pressures Fade
- Europe has shown firmer services inflation recently, running near 2.5% and surprising forecasts.
- However, wage inflation in Europe is declining, which should ease services price pressure into 2026.
US Services Keep Inflation Elevated
- US services inflation shows mixed dynamics: shelter is cooling but super-core (ex‑shelter) is running hot.
- Underlying US measures point closer to 3% than 2%, though cooling demand and labor should bring it down over time.
Tariff Pass‑Through Is Slower, Peaks Later
- Tariff pass-through to US goods prices is occurring but more gradually and later than initially expected.
- The US core CPI/PCE inflation peak is delayed into early 2026, making the return to 2% more protracted.