Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Mar 12, 2026
Allan Monks, UK economist at J.P. Morgan who tracks UK inflation and gas sensitivity. Raphael Brun-Aguerre, euro area economist focused on energy pass-through and ECB implications. Michael Hanson, U.S. economist covering CPI/PCE and Fed dynamics. They discuss the near-term headline impact of higher oil, euro area gas effects, nuanced U.S. CPI/PCE pass-through, risks to core inflation, and central bank reactions.
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Quick Global Headline Inflation Push From Oil
- A 35–40% rise in oil lifts global headline CPI by roughly 0.3–0.4ppt in March and another ~0.3ppt in April.
- Nora Szentivanyi estimates a cumulative near-term boost of about 0.6ppt to global headline inflation from the oil move.
Euro Area Energy Spike Against Falling Core Momentum
- Euro area core inflation was easing toward ~2% before the shock, but rising gas and Brent push near-term headline up.
- Raphael Brun-Aguerre notes TTF gas and oil moves add to a near-term inflationary shock even if core momentum had been moderating.
Small Direct Core Impact In The US From Oil
- In the US, a 10% oil move raises CPI/PCE headline by ~10–15bp and has negligible first-order effect on core inflation.
- Michael Hanson highlights the PCE–CPI gap: core PCE remains near 3% while CPI core is ~2.5%, complicating Fed judgement.