Napkin Math

Sabba and Charlie are back for a special Christmas episode. A 2-hour deep dive split into two parts.In the first, the chaps dive into the $100M ARR frenzy across AI startups, break down the Claude Opus 4.5 release, and debate the escalating LLM wars between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. They also discuss Sergey Brin’s return to Google, the opportunity emerging around the ChatGPT App Store, and why prediction markets are starting to compete with traditional media.In the second, they announce the 2025 awards, sharing their picks for the best product, the best trend, the best distribution startup, and the best comeback story, before closing off with their 2026 predictions.00:00 Intro – Napkin Math Christmas Special00:53 Why founders can hate Christmas01:45 Sabba's baby announcement (and life update)02:55 $100M ARR Frenzy in AI startups07:56 Google AI Studio & Unfair Advantage09:47 Are these AI startups actually profitable?11:37 When will we see $1B ARR companies?12:21 Replit’s long-term advantage & Opus 4.516:10 LLM Wars (Google vs. ChatGPT vs. Anthropic)17:33 Google’s vertical AI advantage explained19:47 Sergey Brin’s return to Google21:19 Is AI a winner-take-all market?31:09 ChatGPT App Store opportunity39:58 What's the hype of Prediction Markets42:47 Startup opportunities around prediction markets50:25 2025 Napkin Math Awards (Best product, trend, distribution & comeback)01:02:27 Why Google now leads AI01:04:12 Bear case for Google01:06:29 Comparing Google’s position to Nvidia’s rise01:08:40 Honorable mention (AI Video’s breakout year)01:09:30 Why models outpaced products in AI video01:11:40 What to watch heading into 2026

After a mini hiatus the boys are back with a banger. 5 startup idea frameworks you can use to start the next unicorn or profitable bootstrapped business. Plus, they inadvertently start the Ben Tossell fan club, and talk about making the UK rich again.00:00 Napkin Math - Startup Idea Frameworks01:43 Startup idea framework 1 - copy your competitors06:23 Framework 2 - build an indirect competitor09:02 Framework 3 - build for a growing trend16:18 Framework 4 - build for new regulations19:54 Framework 4 - build an Open Source competitor26:48 Are any frameworks better for bootstrappers?30:20 Do you need in-market experience before building in that market?31:45 Characteristics of successful founders33:43 The end of Claude Code?35:42 The Ben Tossell fan club39:23 Make Britain Rich Again - Forest City

After a broken leg, Charlie reflects on vital B2B SaaS lessons, highlighting the importance of alleviating pain points and building strong teams. The discussion shifts to VEED’s strategic hiring of a new CTO from Apple and the launch of Fabric 1.0, exploring developer-driven growth. They brainstorm AI integrations for existing businesses and debate the shift toward usage-based billing. The hosts also tackle the negative perception of online courses, discussing the ethics and marketing challenges faced by course creators.

Today Sabba and Charlie break down the Figma IPO and speculate on which company will be the next Figma. They question whether the chat interface for AI is outdated, and debate if DeepMind might be the greatest acquisition of all time, plus who’s most likely to win the AGI race. They also dig into the UK’s online safety act, why VPNs are booming, and wrap up with a very cheeky “recording blocker” startup idea.00:00 Intro01:21 Figma IPO10:32 Who will be the next Figma17:25 "Tea app", Uber for X, Tinder for X etc...27:25 Is the chat interface for AI archaic?31:08 Is DeepMind the best acquisition of all time?34:29 Who will win AGI?37:01 UK's online safety act and the business of VPNs45:50 Recording blocker free startup idea

Sabba talks about how he uses ChatGPT, Charlie talks use cases for Claude Code and the duo debate whether the UK is an impossible place  to bootstrap. Sabba also share lessons on hiring top talent early, and dissect Duolingo’s $1billion freemium play (with a  15% churn rate) before comparing it to VEED’s freemium vs free trial approach.00:00 Intro00:28 How a VC-backed founder uses ChatGPT06:52 Use cases of Claude Code13:25 Napkin Math AI Animation16:14 Is the UK impossible to bootstrap?20:34 Hiring great talent early on25:31 Duolingo's $1billion freemium approach with 15% churn36:04 VEEDs approach to freemium vs free trial

The boys are back talking about Loveable's insane growth and $200m raise, the dangers of founder liquidity, plus more AI chat (of course). Charlie turns Sabba into BusinessGuruGPT prompting him with how he'd grow an eSIM business to $1m in a year. All this, and more, in this week's episode of NAPKIN MATH.Timestamps00:00 Intro00:30 Loveable raises $200m05:58 Jason Lemkin's Replit disaster09:38 Takeaways from Loveable's raise and the future of AI companies15:53 Generative content opportunities18:19 Making £1m from e-sims30:17 Founder liquidity40:14 Focusing on a single growth channel45:25 Are AI influencers important in the future of marketing48:34 Should we be worried about the AI backlash?53:30 The seasonality of SaaS

Sabba and Charlie kick things off with some napkin math on how to make £26k per year in pure profit selling fans, then dive into a the real money maker; an AI automation consultancy. They talk about the rise of the “VEED (or Indie Beers) Mafia,” and discuss JB's Ahrefs-style tool for LLMs. 00:00 Intro00:20 Portable fan Napkin Math09:22 Startup idea: AI automation consultancy15:28 AI for marketing17:40 The VEED Mafia (Indie Beers Mafia)19:41 Ahrefs for LLMs25:16 Why in person events are so important28:20 The new Perplexity browser36:05 Why Charlie is pausing his SaaS

After a hiatus that included a weekend at Glastonbury and a failed recording, the boys are back, and they are on fire. They break down the business of the Glastonbury festival and some new startup ideas around it, they talk about the Figma S1 filing and the insane numbers behind the software platform and Charlie talks about the future of Ramen Space potentially becoming a nation state.

On this episode of Napkin Math, Sabba and Charlie explain why “small bets” are a terrible idea for most founders. They unpack how VEED ranks #1 for “AI video generator” (and other competitive keywords), explore Ben’s idea for a dream analysis app, the surprising business case for astrology, and how AI agents could thrive in markets like Nigeria. Sabba also shares why he believes the global adoption of stablecoins is inevitable.Timestamps:00:00 Intro00:51 Small bets vs single focus11:03 How VEED ranks number one for highly competitive keywords18:32 Ben's dream analysis app23:48 The business of astrology29:25 AI agent app in developing markets (Nigeria)37:17 The adoption of stable coins globally is inevitable - Sabba41:26 Quick fire round

There’s been a major catfight on the internet this week: Trump vs. Elon. So, Charlie did what any good podcast host would do and distilled the best lessons SaaS founders can take from the drama. The guys also share feedback from listeners, chat about opportunities in TikTok Shop, discuss why companies need to reinvent themselves, and of course, Charlie gets Sabba into trouble.Timestamps00:00 - Intro00:32 - B2B lessons from Trump x Musk fallout03:41 - Napkin Math guest feedback12:51 - When did VEED get product market fit15:15 - VEED's 24 hour hackathon18:24 - Why companies need to reinvent themselves25:28 - The future of AI for VEED and 11 Labs31:55 - Business opportunities in TikTok Shop43:07 - Will ChatGPT be the operating system for AI?45:56 - Evolution of seat based billing