Christmas Special: $100M ARR Frenzy, LLM Wars, Sergey’s Comeback, ChatGPT App Store Opportunity, Prediction Markets, 2025 Awards & 2026 Predictions

Sabba and Charlie are back for a special Christmas episode. A 2-hour deep dive split into two parts.

In the first, the chaps dive into the $100M ARR frenzy across AI startups, break down the Claude Opus 4.5 release, and debate the escalating LLM wars between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. They also discuss Sergey Brin’s return to Google, the opportunity emerging around the ChatGPT App Store, and why prediction markets are starting to compete with traditional media.

In the second, they announce the 2025 awards, sharing their picks for the best product, the best trend, the best distribution startup, and the best comeback story, before closing off with their 2026 predictions.

00:00 Intro – Napkin Math Christmas Special
00:53 Why founders can hate Christmas
01:45 Sabba's baby announcement (and life update)

02:55 $100M ARR Frenzy in AI startups
07:56 Google AI Studio & Unfair Advantage
09:47 Are these AI startups actually profitable?
11:37 When will we see $1B ARR companies?
12:21 Replit’s long-term advantage & Opus 4.5

16:10 LLM Wars (Google vs. ChatGPT vs. Anthropic)
17:33 Google’s vertical AI advantage explained
19:47 Sergey Brin’s return to Google
21:19 Is AI a winner-take-all market?

31:09 ChatGPT App Store opportunity
39:58 What's the hype of Prediction Markets
42:47 Startup opportunities around prediction markets
50:25 2025 Napkin Math Awards (Best product, trend, distribution & comeback)
01:02:27 Why Google now leads AI
01:04:12 Bear case for Google
01:06:29 Comparing Google’s position to Nvidia’s rise
01:08:40 Honorable mention (AI Video’s breakout year)
01:09:30 Why models outpaced products in AI video
01:11:40 What to watch heading into 2026