The Macro Dirt Podcast

A road-trip market rundown on oil’s possible reversal and the technical tug-of-war around Brent. Discussion of strong S&P action amid rising yields and messy Treasury moves. Spotlight on sector rotation as commodities, miners, semiconductors, solar, and cloud trade leadership. A light detour into 1995 music nostalgia rounds out the conversation.

They dissect a market stuck at S&P highs and argue whether consolidation masks a bigger reversal. Oil’s bullish push and geopolitical risk take center stage. Gold and miners rolling over get attention alongside an Intel and semiconductors trade idea. Bond market warning signs and stubborn rate expectations create tension. A nostalgic detour explores 1994 grunge and iconic music videos.

Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory and Pershint and former CIO with a Harvard Ph.D. in political science, dives into market narratives and AI-driven narrative analysis. He explores storytelling as the backbone of markets. Conversations cover credit stress in mid-market lending, the likelihood of energy-driven secondary shocks, tech vs energy leadership, and risks of automating decision chains.

They unpack why stocks rally despite rising oil, Iran tensions, and growing macro risks. They explore a short-covering frenzy and technical forces keeping the S&P near highs. Sector battles heat up between energy, rare earths, miners, and tech. They consider how a huge SpaceX IPO could reshape liquidity and positioning. The conversation closes with 1992 music nostalgia and nightclub DJ stories.

They debate violent market swings after ceasefire headlines and whether the moves are real or overreactions. They discuss oil’s downside overshoot and whether energy and natural resources still lead. They cover S&P breadth and shaky leadership in airlines, homebuilders and tech. They touch on gold, silver and metals setups and how headlines, tweets and geopolitics drive trading.

They dissect a historic quarter-end market rally and why oil’s strength hints at bigger inflation trouble. They explore rising yields, gold’s breakout and a rotation out of tech into energy and miners. They debate bond risks, conflicting market signals, and trade ideas for the next quarter. They also touch on resource nationalism and cultural asides like streaming headaches and 90s music memories.

They frame the market as a single binary trade: long the war or short the war. Oil surges, stocks break down, and yields climb as diversification fails. They question mainstream narratives and weigh insider bets and headline-driven volatility. Trading-floor instincts, inflation scenarios, and precious metals as a risk barometer get tight, urgent attention.

Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and creator of the Global Liquidity Index, brings sharp global liquidity and macro strategy expertise. He explores peaking liquidity, China’s role in driving gold, rising oil and commodity risks, and the case for a long-term bull market in real assets. He also discusses defensive positioning, yield-curve signals, stablecoins as a policy tool, and geopolitical inflation dynamics.

They unpack war-driven oil volatility tied to Strait of Hormuz headlines. They trace panic S&P waterfall moves, VIX spikes and fleeting relief rallies. They debate whether war or structural risks like AI excess will trigger deeper market trouble. They map confused sector rotations from solar and cybersecurity strength to weakness in transports and housing. They end with contrarian trade ideas in spirits and live-event trends.

Larry McDonald, credit strategist, author of How to Listen When Markets Speak and founder of The Bear Traps Report. Conversation covers stress in private credit and insurers’ hidden exposure. They discuss AI-driven CapEx and potential credit contagion. Debate a macro rotation from Big Tech into energy and natural resources. Talks include emerging-market volatility, oil amid geopolitics, data-center energy demand, and Bitcoin versus gold.