The Macro Dirt Podcast The Quarter-End Dirt
Apr 1, 2026
They dissect a historic quarter-end market rally and why oil’s strength hints at bigger inflation trouble. They explore rising yields, gold’s breakout and a rotation out of tech into energy and miners. They debate bond risks, conflicting market signals, and trade ideas for the next quarter. They also touch on resource nationalism and cultural asides like streaming headaches and 90s music memories.
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Quarter End Rally Amid Rising Oil Shows Market Divergence
- A historic quarter-end rally can coexist with rising oil, signaling mixed market drivers.
- Tony Greer highlights this as the biggest quarter-end rally since 9/30/2008 while oil stayed bid, creating a puzzling divergence.
Natural Resources Leading While Tech Suffers
- Natural resources led the market even as tech and financials lagged, creating a sectoral controlled-demolition effect.
- Tony Greer points to XLE, XOP and OIH up ~38–45% in Q1 while big-cap tech and MAG7 were negative YTD.
Gold Acting As A Reliable Risk Barometer
- Gold strength acted as an encouraging risk barometer despite dollar moves, suggesting real leadership beneath headline volatility.
- Tony Greer notes gold climbed above its 100-day moving average and 50-day sits above it, implying a potential target zone near 6700–6900.