Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 06/28/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kick off the episode discussing recent market trends and political impacts on the stock market, particularly focusing on the market’s reactions to political debates and economic indicators such as housing starts, trade deficits, and GDP growth estimates. Professor Siegel notes the persistent high interest rates affecting housing prices and the soft economic data in various sectors. He concludes with his outlook on the Federal Reserves potential actions in the upcoming meetings. (11:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with San Francisco Fed Research Advisor John Mondragon, who delves into the intricacies of measuring housing and inflation metrics, particularly the CPI and owner’s equivalent rent (OER). They discuss the lag in rent inflation data and its implications on current economic assessments. Mondragon also touches on his research on housing supply dynamics and the long-term impact of housing construction on prices. Following this, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research joins to share his market outlook for the second half of the year. He highlights the persistent inflationary pressures in the housing market and forecasts a continued bullish trend driven by a potential Fed pivot and credit expansion narrative. Pies emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in market dynamics, and discusses strategic asset allocation focusing on quality stocks and alternative investments. Guests: John Mondragon is a research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He works on the mortgage and housing markets and empirical macroeconomics. Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Learn more about John at: https://sites.google.com/site/johnnelsonmondragon/ Follow John on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/john-mondragon-250028138 Learn more about Warren at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437

The podcast delves into lower economic data and jobless claims, NVIDIA's stock movements, softness in the housing market, and the impact of the upcoming presidential debate on stocks. They also discuss market trends, technical analysis, the U.S. market's performance, China as an investment opportunity, and the importance of understanding market signals. Additionally, they emphasize adapting to fast-paced market changes and avoiding noise in investment decisions.

Financial expert Philippe Gijsels discusses long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt. He emphasizes the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors. The podcast also covers market trends, Fed rate cuts, elections impact on markets, investing in a changing economic landscape, multi-globalization, AI, and tech valuations.

Show from 06/7/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market data, highlighting unexpected job growth and its implications on the economy. Professor Siegel notes the market’s resilience despite bond market fluctuations, and emphasizes the potential impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and CPI reports. (10:47) Jeremy Schwartz continues the discussion with Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. They explore the strategic importance of technology and innovation in maintaining global competitiveness, particularly against China. Ylli discusses the parallels between their new document and the Cold War-era NSC 68, and outlines the critical role of AI and other emerging technologies in the geopolitical landscape. They also touch on the necessity for public-private partnerships and the bipartisan support needed to stay ahead in the technology race. Guest: Ylli Bajraktari is the President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. Prior to launching SCSP, Ylli served as the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining NSCAI, he served as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor LTG H.R. McMaster, held a variety of leadership roles for former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and served as Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey. Originally joining the Department of Defense in 2010, he served in the Office of the Undersecretary for Policy as a country director for Afghanistan, and later India. Mr. Bajraktari is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal – the highest award given to career DoD civilian employees. Learn more about Ylli at: https://www.scsp.ai/ylli-bajraktari/ Follow Ylli on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ylli-bajraktari-5b101326b

Show from 05/31/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss recent market trends, starting with the latest inflation data, earnings season results, and current tech sector weaknesses. Professor Siegel comments on the recent jury decision on Trump, noting it had no significant market impact. Professor Siegel anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth but does not foresee a recession. (09:03) Jeremy continues the conversation with Adam Phillips, Managing Director of Investments at EP Wealth Advisors. Adam provides an overview of EP Wealth Advisors, emphasizing their focus on comprehensive financial planning and investment management. He discusses how election uncertainties impact clients’ investment strategies and the broader market. He also explains the firm’s approach to managing portfolios, highlighting a preference for high-quality investments and strategic diversification. Adam noted an increased interest in international investments, particularly in Japan and Europe. On the fixed income front, Adam describes their strategy of managing duration and maintaining exposure to high-quality bonds while cautiously incorporating strategic income assets. Adam also touches on the role of alternative investments in client portfolios, including private credit, private equity, and other non-traditional assets. He underscores the importance of these investments in achieving diversification and managing risk in the current economic environment. Guest: Adam N. Phillips, CFA, CAIA, CFP® has a strong background in investments and portfolio strategy. Adam N. has held various senior level positions at EP Wealth Advisors and City National Rochdale, where Adam N. has worked with high net worth, trust, and institutional clients. With an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BS in Business Administration from USC Marshall School of Business, Adam's expertise in asset allocation, security selection, and tax management make him a valuable asset in the finance industry. Learn more about Adam at: https://theorg.com/org/ep-wealth-advisors/org-chart/adam-n-phillips-cfa-caia-cfp Follow Adam on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/adamnphillips

Show from 05/24/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese for a special dual release episode of Behind the Markets and Facts vs. Feelings. The tables turn in this episode as Jeremy takes the guest seat. He discusses his long-term collaboration with Professor Jeremy Siegel and their work on “Stocks for the Long Run,” highlighting insights on market trends, valuation perspectives, and international investments. They delve into the current state of the economy, inflation measures, and the potential impact of AI on productivity. Ryan and Sonu then shift the conversation to Jeremy’s experiences as WisdomTree’s Global CIO, exploring the firm’s innovative approaches to ETFs and model portfolios. Jeremy shares his thoughts on the importance of international diversification, the competitive edge of Japanese stocks, and the implications of currency hedging strategies. The episode concludes with Professor Siegel and Jeremy’s passion for barbecue. Facts Vs Feelings Hosts: As Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, Ryan Detrick brings a wealth of expertise and a strong understanding of financial markets to guide the firm’s strategic investment decisions. With a proven track record of insightful market analysis and a passion for helping both advisors and clients navigate the complexities of the financial landscape, Ryan plays a pivotal role in shaping the investment strategies that drive Carson Group’s success. Sonu Varghese has over 15 years of experience in the Asset Management industry. Before joining Carson, he was a Partner and Director of Research at Convex Capital Management where he co-managed portfolios, advised clients and led the research effort, including creating a proprietary leading economic index for 30 countries and systematizing investment processes. Prior to that Sonu worked independently with hedge fund managers and high-net worth individuals to develop quantitative investment models for trading equities, options, ETFs and closed-end funds. Learn more about Ryan at: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/team-members/ryan-detrick/ Follow Ryan on X(Twitter): @RyanDetrick Learn more about Sonu at: https://www.carsonwealth.com/team-members/sonu-varghese/ Follow Sonu on X(Twitter): @sonuvarghese Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0pDWHQulo5ezvA3hPS5wH7 Listen to Facts vs. Feelings on Apple Music: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/talking-about-markets-and-life-with-jeremy-schwartz-ep-87/id1651235114?i=1000657157147

Show from 05/24/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the recent positive economic data, including strong durable goods reports, good claims data, and a strong GDP growth rate for the current quarter. Professor Siegel expresses optimism despite some market jitters related to the FOMC minutes and commodity price movements. He highlights how certain economic indicators, such as oil and copper prices, have softened, which may positively impact inflation trends. Siegel also discusses the potential implications of AI advancements, especially in light of NVIDIA’s impressive earnings, and the broader economic context, emphasizing the importance of monitoring future economic data closely. (6:56) Jeremy welcomes guest Daniel Rock, a professor at Wharton and an expert on AI and its economic impacts. They discuss Daniel’s recent AI conference and the cutting-edge research presented there, including the role of AI in enhancing productivity and the transformation of various job sectors. Daniel elaborates on his research findings, indicating that while AI can significantly boost productivity in higher-wage jobs, it also poses challenges in terms of job displacement and economic inequality. The conversation touches on practical AI applications in business, the necessity of training and adaptation for effective AI implementation, and the potential long-term economic benefits and risks associated with widespread AI adoption. Daniel also highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration to fully understand and harness the power of AI in the evolving economic landscape. Guest: Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor in the Operations, Information, and Decisions(OID) department at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is one of the affiliated faculty members at Wharton AI for Business. Broadly, his research is centered on the economic impact of digital technologies. Daniels' work shows that new digital technologies and intangible assets are an increasingly important component of economic activity. Investment in data assets, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and technological human capital are critical margins for firm competition and social change in this environment. In his research, Daniel measures and explains how some of these trends are evolving. Learn more about Daniel at: https://www.danielianrock.com/ Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @danielrock

Show from 05/17/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest market trends, starting with recent positive inflation data. The Prof notes concerns over various economic indicators, such as soft retail sales and housing starts, while emphasizing strong earnings and technical market strength. He also mentions the rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, driven by AI-related demand. Despite some economic weaknesses, The Professor remains bullish on the market’s short-term technicals. (12:08) Jeremy then welcomes Krishna Kumar, founder and PM at Goose Hollow Capital. They discuss the dominance of tech stocks in the S&P 500, the challenges of high valuations, and the strategic importance of commodities in portfolios. Krishma elaborates on the need for tactical investment strategies. He talks about the potential of emerging markets, and the importance of diversifying beyond traditional U.S.-centric portfolios. Guest: Krishna Kumar is the CIO of Goose Hollow Capital Management, a boutique investment management firm based in the NY area. He has two decades of markets experience with expertise in derivatives trading and has managed size-able multi-asset portfolios at two large Hedge Funds. Prior to his buy-side career, Mr. Kumar worked in Derivatives at Citi and Barclays. He was a pioneer in creating Systematic Strategies at Barclays. He has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Graduate degree in Computational Finance. He has been applying machine learning techniques to Macro Markets. Learn more about Krishna at: https://goosehollowcapital.com/ Follow Krishna on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/krishna-kumar-mba-89372aa

Show from 05/10/24 Jeremy Schwartz, alongside Elisabeth Reynolds from MIT and Liza Tobin from SESP, discuss the dynamic landscape of U.S. competitiveness in technology and manufacturing. The conversation focuses on the implications of the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are pivotal in revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing sector through substantial governmental investment and policy support. Elisabeth and Liza highlight the strategic need to strengthen supply chains and enhance technological advancements to compete globally, particularly against China’s long standing manufacturing strategies. They emphasize the importance of integrating advanced manufacturing technologies and digital capabilities to sustain economic security and industrial innovation in the U.S. Guests: Elisabeth Reynolds is a Lecturer and Principal Research Scientist focused on systems of innovation, regional economic development and industrial competitiveness. Her research and practice centers on regional cluster development and innovation systems as well as advanced manufacturing, growing innovative companies to scale, and building innovation capacity in developed and developing countries. She recently served in the Biden Administration at the National Economic Council as Special Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Economic Development from 2021 to October, 2022. In that capacity, she was engaged in many of the country’s supply chain challenges as well as helped to develop the Biden Administration’s manufacturing agenda and broader industrial strategy including around infrastructure, semiconductors and clean energy. Liza Tobin is the senior director of research and analysis for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project. Before joining SCSP, she served on the National Security Council staff as China director, where she led the development of multiple US strategies and policies related to China, including on trade and economics, climate and the environment, military issues, and China’s influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Before serving at the National Security Council, Ms. Tobin worked for more than a decade in various capacities as a China specialist for the US government, including as a senior adviser at the US Indo-Pacific Command and an economic analyst at the CIA, and in various roles in the private sector and academia. She holds an MA in international relations with concentrations in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, and a BA in China studies and biblical studies from Gordon College. Learn more about Elisabeth: https://dusp.mit.edu/people/elisabeth-reynolds Follow Elisabeth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/elisabeth-reynolds Learn more about Liza: https://itif.org/person/liza-tobin/ Follow Liza on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/liza-tobin-b9b902200

Show from 05/03/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest economic data and market reactions. Prof. Siegel highlights the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain patience in policy adjustments amidst mixed economic signals, notably the unexpected benefits of subdued wage growth and soft payroll numbers, despite persistent price pressures in certain sectors. (12:08) The conversation then transitions to guests Constance and Samuel, who delve into economic forecasts and the impact of ongoing inflation trends on future Federal Reserve actions. Samuel emphasizes the need to pay attention to businesses rather than only focusing on what The Fed releases. Constance gives great examples of productivity around AI. The group tackles global economic conditions affecting markets today. They discuss energy prices all the way to international manufacturing shifts. Guests: Hunter holds a BA in Economics and Sociology from New York University, a master's degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Certified Business Economist designation. She is an expert in macroeconomic and industry analysis and is recognized for being among the first economists to forecast pivotal economic events, including the impacts of COVID-19 on the US and other global economies, the 2007 real estate and credit crisis, and the 2001 burst of the Dotcom bubble. Hunter joins AIG from KPMG, where she served as a chief economist since 2013 and a member of the growth and strategy leadership team since 2020. Previously, she has served as a deputy chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, where she helped lead the management of over $500 billion in fixed-income assets. Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed. Follow Constance on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/constance-l-hunter Follow Constance on (X)Twitter: @ConstanceHunter Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/samuelerines Follow Samuel on (X)Twitter: @SamuelRines