Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 04/26/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel dive into this week's market dynamics, starting with a discussion on the unexpectedly low GDP report. Professor Siegel shares his concerns but offers a more optimistic outlook based on detailed analysis of positive economic data indicators, suggesting a better performance in the upcoming quarters. (14:52) Jeremy transitions to guest Jason Hsu of Reliant Global Advisors. The two focus their discussion on the investment landscape in Asia, particularly China and Japan. They assess the valuation of Chinese markets amidst geopolitical tensions. They continue by exploring broader implications for emerging markets, with a comparative analysis of regional investment strategies. Guest: Jason Hsu is the founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. Throughout his accomplished career, Jason’s commitment to academic rigor and investor advocacy have led him to research, develop, and bring to market investment strategies that create significant value for investors. At Rayliant, Jason is continuing that commitment by educating investors and offering products to transform the investment ecosystem in Asia and beyond. Prior to his current role, Jason was the co-founder and vice chairman of Research Affiliates. Learn more about Jason at: https://rayliant.com/team/jason-hsu/ Follow Jason on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu

Guest Rob Sluymer, Technical Strategist at RBC Wealth Management, shares insights on market cycles and the S&P 500's potential. The podcast discusses how long-term cycles impact investment opportunities, market trends, and the importance of recognizing these cycles for strategic planning.

Show from 04/12/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel, inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack. Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program. Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/ Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842

Show from 04/05/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time. Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto. Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Tech industry analyst Dan Ives discusses the current tech cycle, Metaverse, AI development, Google-Apple collaborations, benefits of investing in Nvidia, overseas risks in tech, and lack of demand from Asia. They explore geopolitical risks in China and Taiwan, chip manufacturing, US-China relations, and advancements in automotive technology and healthcare fueled by AI.

Show from 03/22/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week's market and Powels dovish announcement. The Prof states that the Fed believes trends are decreasing however he feels the economy is still moving along nicely. He notes that deflationary forces have begun to ease up. David joins to give his market opinion alongside the Prof as the two discuss their opposing views. (23:42) David continues with Jeremy to talk about how he forecasts the market with his business. Jeremy asks David about consumer sales and how it’s affecting some of the luxury brands. David touches on topics like the employment report, and recent comments from Bullard. He gives his case on why he loves the Japanese Market. David also talks about India as another alternative market to China. Guest: David is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. During this time, he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto. Learn more about David at: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Follow David on X(Twitter): @EconguyRosie

Show from 03/15/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dig in this week on the most current market information, starting off by talking about the CPI and PPI outcomes. The Prof states the market seems to have bottomed out and is not going lower. Tom and Professor Seigel agree that the commercial real estate market has really suffered. (13:31) Jeremy continues on with Tom who gives us a breakdown of what Ready Capital is all about. Tom talks through a normal transaction cycle and explains bridge financing. He comments on how interest rates have impacted the commercial real estate market. Jeremy asks about commercial mortgage REITs and the discounts people are seeing. Tom also gives us more details on how their SBA loans work and what pressures he sees in the banking community. Guest: Thomas Capasse serves as Chairman of our board of directors, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Capasse is also a Principal and co-founder of Ready Capital’s external manager, Waterfall Asset Management, LLC. Prior to founding our Manager, Mr. Capasse managed the principal finance groups at Greenwich Capital from 1995 until 1997, Nomura Securities from 1997 until 2001, and Macquarie Securities from 2001 until 2004. Mr. Capasse has significant and long standing experience in the securitization market as a founding member of Merrill Lynch’s ABS Group (1983—1994) with a focus on MBS transactions (including the initial Subprime Mortgage and Manufactured Housing ABS) and experience in many other ABS sectors. Mr. Capasse began his career as a fixed income analyst at Dean Witter and Bank of Boston. Mr. Capasse received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Bowdoin College in 1979. Learn more about Thomas at: https://readycapital.com/professionals/thomas-capasse/ Follow Thomas on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-capasse-6470782

Show from 03/08/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by discussing this week's exciting market moves. The Prof says this week’s employment report is very good, revising the shocking report from January. He continues by diving into the Nvidia stock and his 10 year prediction confirmation. (11:17) Art joins Jeremy to discuss everything oil and energy. He begins by talking about energy blindness and energies overall underrepresentation in economic importance. Jeremy asks about natural gas, its excess production and Europe's involvement. The two discuss the Bakken break-even, if technology will increase production and drilling wells too close together. Art also talks about renewables and policies we are exploring that might not be the best. Guest: Art Berman is an energy consultant with 40 years in petroleum geology and a degree in Middle Eastern history. His comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, an expert witness, and a keynote speaker. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations. Learn more about Art at: https://www.artberman.com Follow Art on X(Twitter): @aeberman12

Show from 03/01/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin with an old saying “make the trend your friend”. The Prof gives us a detailed look at this week's market data. He continues talking about the interview he listened to of Austan Goolsbee. (11:41) Jeremy is joined by Jared as they discuss his book and current opinions on today's market. Jared goes into detail about his book on personal financing and why he decided to write about a stress free balanced approach rather than extreme suggestions. Jared emphasizes the fun of making more money instead of cutting expenses. He covers many topics from the housing market to car purchases and how it affects personal finances. Jared also covers student loans, saving and investing, holding onto gold and why bitcoin doesn’t work with his model. Guest: Jared Dillian is a writer, author, DJ, and speaker. His newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture, music and sex. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries. Learn more about Jared at: https://www.jareddillian.com/ Follow Jared on X(Twitter): @dailydirtnap

Show from 02/23/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel jump right in to talk about the blow out week for tech. The Prof touches base on the job markets decrease and the mention of rate cuts by the Fed. Nvidia brought the entire tech stock back up this week with their demand for semiconductors. The Prof does not think that this is a bubble and that the evaluation of Nvidia is correct. (9:35) Jeremy is joined this week by Charles, CIO of Syz Group. The two continue by discussing the rise in tech in comparison to past tech bubbles. Jeremy asks Charles about the ESG mentality and if it needs to change. Charles gives his opinion on the Russia/Ukraine situation and how it may play out over the next few years. Jeremy dives into the sentiment of investing in Chinese stocks. Charles also discusses the state of currency around the world and bitcoin. Guest: Charles-Henry Monchau joined Bank Syz from FlowBank, where he was Chief Investment Officer and Chief Commercial Officer. Prior to this, he had been CIO of Al Mal Capital (Dubai Investments), Head of the Asset Allocation Team for the EMEA region at Deutsche Bank and held various C-level positions in Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. Charles-Henry has an Executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in Finance from HEC Geneva. He is also a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charter-holder. Learn more about Charles at: https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news/bank-syz-appoints-chief-investment-officer Follow Charles on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096