Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 02/16/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's episode discussing the big data on inflation. The Prof gets into detail on the reports, giving us an indepth look at the current market. The two also talk about the explosive moves in Small-Caps. (7:47) Jeremy is joined by Chris to talk about banks and the current situation in America. Chris talks about whether he would prefer to be net long or net short. The two discuss their opinions on big banking crisis issues from the past. Chris talks about the politics behind solving the banking problems and its troubled history. Jeremy brings up where Chris would rate banks in America and what issues they currently have today. Chris also deep dives into mortgages, the current home market, as well as the index he’s created and the services he provides. Guest: Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and writer who lives in New York. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. Christopher is the author of several books, is contributing editor at National Mortgage News, and edits The Institutional Risk Analyst. He appears in a variety of other publications and media. Chris is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA and is a Senior Advisor at J.V.B. Financial Group in New York. Learn more about Chris at: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Follow Chris on X(Twitter): @rcwhalen

Show from 02/09/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off by talking about the light market week. The Prof notes that next week will be much bigger following the release of many important reports. He is confident that if the Fed continues to see the data slowing, they will lower rates. The Prof goes into detail on the tech market, the excitement around AI and how it has been trending recently. (9:59) Daniel joins the conversation with Jeremy to discuss dividends in this AI driven world. Jeremy asks Daniel about historical dividend by-backs and pivotal moments that caused people to turn away from them. Daniel talks about growth versus dividends. He explains how harvested capital gains are not the same as dividends. Jeremy asks Daniel about what types of yields he prefers to see in the markets. Daniel mentions geopolitics, his opinion on investing worldwide and his disapproval for government intervention in by-backs. Guest: Daniel Peris, Ph.D., CFA oversees dividend-focused portfolios for a major US asset manager. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history. Learn more about Daniel at: https://strategicdividendinvestor.com/about-the-author/ Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @HistoryInvestor

Show from 02/02/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's discussion with a look at the latest jobs report. The Prof says the plunge in hours reported is only ever seen in recession times and stresses the importance of further research. The Prof says there is increased concern about the banks again but it appears to be an isolated incident. (10:16) Jeremy continues his conversation with Neil to talk about the Professor's comments on the current economy. Neil states that the severe weather is the cause for low hours this week and there should be an increase moving forward. Jeremey asks Neil what could be causing mass dissatisfaction for the economy among US citizens. Jeff joins the discussion to discuss the bond market and global economics. Neil comments on what the 5 to 7 year trend on productivity might be. The group gives their opinion on Small-Caps, commercial real-estate and bank lending, as well as bio tech and international markets. Guests: Jeff has been one of Wall Street’s most influential macro-analysts over the last quarter-century. His process assisted clients in navigating both the up and downside as well as the inherent risks associated with this business. As a member of Institutional Investor’s Hall of Fame, Jeff has helped legitimize technical analysis by employing a disciplined process reliant on data, history, and statistics, while discounting the narrative-based approach that remains so popular on Wall Street. His dedication to the business, unquenchable passion for markets and history creates a foundation that offers the flexibility to profit and protect. Jeff is known for his pragmatism and willingness to express both bullish and bearish views. As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta, As Head of Economic Research, leads our macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out of consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation and housing. Learn more about Jeff at: https://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/ Learn more about Neil at: https://www.renmac.com/neil-dutta/ Follow Jeff on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa Follow Neil on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/dutta-neil

Show from 01/26/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegelbegin this week with the Prof describing the market as Goldilocks. Inventory build up may weigh on the first quarter says the Prof. The Fed will not be raising rates next week, but will also not be decreasing them. He also gives us his view on the political race, how it could affect the market and insights into what's going on in Argentina. (10:26) Juan Salerno joins Jeremy to discuss what truly is happening in Argentina right now with new leadership. Juan explains that the country will go into a recession due to policy reforms, but will come out hopefully stronger. Jeremy asks Juan about the strength of the economy and what they are focused on during the new regime. Jeremy shifts the conversation to energy and Argentina's future ventures in that sector. Juan talks about his position at Compass, what their client base is like, what they prefer to invest in and much more. Guests: Juan is a Partner of Compass, Chief Investment Officer and Director of Compass Argentina. He is the Portfolio Manager of fixed income funds domiciled in Argentina. Previously he was a Senior Equity and Fixed Income Analyst. Prior to joining the firm, he was Portfolio Manager at Grupo Galicia Seguros. He has also been involved in analyzing, pricing, and trading private debt and structured securities. Juan is a certified Public Accountant with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Universidad Católica de La Plata and an MSF from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Learn more about Luan at: https://cgcompass.com/en/team/ Follow Luan on LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/juan-miguel-salerno-8555705

Geopolitical expert Liqian and participant Jeff join the podcast to discuss the Taiwan election's impact on world markets, Chinese market, TikTok, EV manufacturing, Chinese car companies, and underappreciated risks in the macroeconomic landscape.

Eric Golden, an expert in crypto and its overall asset class, joins Jeremy Schwartz on the podcast. They discuss the recent fee war in crypto, criminal use of bitcoin, zero fee ETFs, and the future of the crypto market. Eric shares his thoughts on Ethereum and talks about Canopy, his company's role in digital assets management.

Show from 1/5/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start the year off by reviewing the holiday market. The Prof explains productivity growth as the difference between inflation and wage increases. He notes that next week's reports will give a better look into how inflation is doing currently, but everything looks positive. Kevin joins as co-host to ask the Prof about the current job market.The Prof finishes by giving us his prediction for the 10 year. (14:59) Chris joins Jeremy and Kevin to talk about the interesting opportunities in the private credit space. Chris explains how credit is becoming its own distinct asset class. Jeremy asks Chris to break down for the average investor where the yields would be on the index. Kevin and Jeremy bring up commercial real estate, mortgage rates and whether people should be concerned. Kevin gives us insight into how the portfolio reflects the risks of credit and the current market. Guest: Kevin Flanagan serves as Head of Fixed Income Strategy as part of WisdomTree’s Investment Strategy group. In this role, he contributes to the asset allocation team, writes fixed income-related content and travels with the sales team, conducting client-facing meetings and providing expertise on WisdomTree’s existing and future bond ETFs. In addition, Kevin works closely with the fixed income team. Chris Acito founded Gapstow in 2009 and is responsible for managing all client engagements. Prior to Gapstow, Chris was the Global Chief Operating Officer for Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group, which allocated $8.5 billion in client and proprietary capital. Prior to Investcorp, Chris enjoyed a ten-year career as a management consultant, beginning with Booz Allen & Hamilton's Banking & Capital Markets practice. In 1998 he joined John Casey, Kevin Quirk, and others to build a business strategy consulting firm which focused exclusively on the global investment management industry. Chris began his career as an economist. He served on the President's Council of Economic Advisers in both the GHW Bush and Clinton administrations, where his areas of expertise were financial markets and macroeconomic policy. He was also the Managing Director of the Center for Population Economics, a Chicago-based group dedicated to researching issues in health economics under the direction of Nobel Prize winner Robert W. Fogel. Chris holds a BA in Economics from Duke University and an MA in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is Board Chair Emeritus Trustee of The Peddie School in Hightstown, New Jersey. Chris serves on the investment committees of Peddie and The New York Community Trust. Learn more about Kevin: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/kevin-flanagan Learn more about Chris: https://www.gapstow.com/#team Follow Kevin on Twitter: @KevinFlanaganWT Follow Chris on LinkedIn: ​​linkedin.com/in/chris-acito-44414a9

Show from 12/22/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel end the year with a discussion on the Professor's prediction on what markets will do in the new year. The Prof gives his opinion on two strong topics about the Fed. He doesn’t believe there will be any slowing of the market however if it does the Fed is ready. Jim joins in to talk with the Prof about money supply. (15:23) Jeremy continues with Jim as they discuss Bianco Research, the new index his company has created and his outlook for 2024. Jim talks about the TIPS yield and how they’ve changed in the past few years. Jeremy asks Jim about his thesis on inflation being sticky. Jim breaks down how covid affected the Chinese economy. Jim gives his view on bond volatility and what’s depressing equity. Jim gives his thoughts on credits and where he feels the market will head going into the new year. Guest: Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades-long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Learn more about Jim: https://www.biancoresearch.com/about-us/ Follow Jim on Twitter: @biancoresearch

Show from 12/15/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel talk about the Fed this week. The Prof is surprised by how flexible the Fed has been. He states that this flexibility has shown promise for the markets future of a soft landing due to the previous rate hikes. The Prof gives his opinion on bond duration rates. If there is a recession, he says that bond rates will go down. (10:44) Eric joins Jeremy, beginning with his agreement to what the Prof has stated. Eric talks about what 3EDGE models their assets on and how they determine risk in their client portfolios. The two converse on how high US margins are compared to history and the rest of the world. Eric discusses how 3EDGE researches and builds formulas to predict future growth in the market. He talks about standout areas highlighted by the company's models and where they keep eyes on for future growth. They talk about gold and its importance in the market. The two cover a wide range of market assets and what 3EDGE views as important areas to track and who would benefit from their services. Guest: Eric Biegeleisen serves as Partner, Deputy Chief Investment Officer & Investment Committee Member at 3EDGE Asset Management. Eric is responsible for the research operations at 3EDGE. His research focuses on discovering and exploring the interconnectedness of global capital markets through quantitative and qualitative analyses. Learn more about Eric: https://3edgeam.com/team/ Follow Eric on Twitter: @EBiegs_3EDGE

Show from 12/08/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin today's show by covering all the data coming in from the last two weeks. The Prof states that the data is relatively weak, but not recession weak. There is no inflationary pressure that indicates further inflation. (9:21) Jeremy is then joined by Uma to discuss her view on the interest rate impact on the real estate market. She talks about the modern economy and how it relates to real estate and CenterSquare. Chris and Jeremy ask Uma about rental rates on data centers spaces, REITS and e-commerce logistic cycles. Uma talks about how CenterSquare structures technology in its warehouses. They also cover metrics related to the REIT and private real estate investing asset class. Guest: Uma Moriarity is the Senior Investment Strategist and Global ESG Lead for CenterSquare Investment Management. She focuses on investment strategy and leads thought leadership across the Firm’s public and private real estate platforms. She is part of the listed real estate investment team and serves on CenterSquare’s Private Real Estate Debt Investment Committee. Prior to joining CenterSquare, she spent three years in corporate strategy and planning at ExxonMobil in Houston. Learn more about Uma: https://www.centersquare.com/team-members/uma-moriarity/ Follow Uma on Twitter: @uma_moriarty Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti