Behind the Markets Podcast

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, shares his insights on the economic landscape shaped by prolonged high interest rates. He discusses the weakened market leadership and the crucial role of commodities in diversified portfolios. Boockvar also delves into gold's price trajectory and the competition between Bitcoin and gold as investment choices. He emphasizes the need for rethinking asset allocation strategies in the current volatile environment, highlighting opportunities in emerging markets, especially in Asia.

Show from 08/30/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market data, including recent jobless claims, the inflation outlook, and upcoming Fed decisions. Professor Siegel emphasizes the need for the Fed to lower rates to avoid unnecessary recession risks and comments on the stable but unimpressive economic performance. (09:08) Jeremy continues the discussion with guests Richard Oller and Jake Hollinger, who share insights on the real estate market, including rental trends stabilizing post-pandemic, the impact of interest rates on property valuations, and the challenges of negative leverage. They also explore the broader supply-demand dynamics in housing, potential policy solutions for affordability, and the evolving cultural shift towards renting over homeownership. Guests: Richard, a lawyer by training, in 1985 founded the Wentworth Group (now First Service Residential) which over the next 15 years grew into one of the largest residential real estate management firms in the United States. In 2004 Richard aligned with his current partner, Jeffrey Goldstein, sharing the helm at Multifamily Management Services and Affiliates (MMS) and GoldOller. As a founding member of GoldOller Real Estate Investments, LLC, Jakes serves as President and Chief Operating Officer. In this role, Jake directs new investments for the Goldoller portfolio and oversees management operations for all investments. Jake has over 15 years of experience working with real estate investments in acquisitions, development, finance, and management. Learn more about Richard at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/ Learn more about Jake at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/ Follow Jake on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bill-miller-cfa-a421075

Show from 08/23/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, noting its dovish tone and implications for future Fed rate cuts. Professor Siegel emphasizes the ongoing strength in economic data, such as jobless claims and new home sales, while expressing concern over the timing and scale of rate cuts. He predicts that value stocks, small caps, and dividend payers will benefit as the Fed’s easing cycle continues. (12:21) Jeremy is joined by Bill Miller, who shares his insights on the economy and markets, including the strength of small-cap stocks. The two discuss opportunities for home builders and the impact of Fed policy on interest rates. Miller also discusses his firm’s value-oriented investment strategy, including positions in companies like Stellantis and PayPal, and his bullish stance on Bitcoin as a long-term investment. Guest: Bill Miller IV, CFA, CMT has managed the firm’s Income Strategy since April, 2009. Prior to working exclusively with Miller Value Partners, Bill worked at Legg Mason Capital Management since 2008 covering the specialty finance and consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Bill earned his MBA from the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth after working as an analyst at the management consulting firm McKinsey & Company. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude from Tufts University with a degree in economics. Bill earned his CFA designation in 2011 and his CMT designation in 2018. Learn more about Bill at: https://millervalue.com/ Follow Bill on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bill-miller-cfa-a421075

In this lively outdoor chat, Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, and Jack Farley from Blockworks illuminate financial markets while fishing in Maine. They dissect the implications of high inflation, explore a potential 'no landing' scenario for the economy, and analyze the transformative role of ETFs in the bond market. The duo also shares insights on how the Federal Reserve's moves on interest rates could affect future economic trends and discusses the intersection of finance with the current political climate.

Show from 08/09/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into the week’s market developments, focusing on the Fed’s approach to interest rates. Professor Siegel strongly argues that the Fed should implement a significant rate cut, possibly 75 basis points. He believes the Fed’s models indicate that the Fed funds rate should already be lower. Siegel also discusses his concerns about the Fed’s lack of clear communication regarding their decision-making process, stressing the importance of adjusting rates sooner rather than later to maintain economic stability. (10:09) Jeremy continues the conversation with Samuel Rines who provides a detailed analysis of the current economic landscape. Rines touches on the noise in recent jobless claims data due to external factors like weather events. He discusses the normalization of inflation rates and how companies are beginning to see improvements in margins as input costs stabilize. Rines also highlights specific investment opportunities, including the potential in Japanese equities following recent market disruptions, the strategic importance of Poland within emerging markets, and the long-term growth prospects in India. Rines and Jeremy also discuss how geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations are influencing global investment strategies. Guest: Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed. Learn more about Samuel at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: @SamuelRines

Show from 08/02/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market developments, focusing on the recent Fed meeting and the implications of economic data. Professor Siegel criticizes the Fed’s decision to not cut rates despite signs of a weakening job market and increasing jobless claims. He expresses concern over a potential slowdown in the labor market and comments on the Fed’s neutral rate, inflation trends, and the performance of dividend-paying value stocks amid changing economic conditions. (14:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with Ken Taheny, head of trading and a co-portfolio manager at Foreships Asset Management. Ken discusses the recent turmoil in Asian markets, specifically Japan, highlighting the impact of the yen’s strengthening and the historic sell-off in Japanese equities. He explains the dynamics of the yen carry trade, the potential for a Japanese manufacturing renaissance, and the geopolitical factors influencing currency and market trends. Ken shares his insights into the opportunities in Japanese equities, the value of the yen, and the potential for Japan to become a key player in global high-end manufacturing as supply chains diversify from China. Guest: Kenneth Taheny and his team at Four Ships Asset Management excel in navigating complex trading strategies, having successfully managed significant asset portfolios. Through collaboration with a diverse international clientele, they've honed their expertise in financial services and asset management, ensuring operational excellence and regulatory compliance. Follow Kenneth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/kenneth-taheny-60554524

Show from 07/26/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest economic data, discussing the current GDP growth rate of 2%, stable jobless claims, and the PCE consumption figures. They note the favorable trends in commodity prices and speculate on the Fed’s potential rate cuts in September, with Professor Siegel suggesting a likely 25 basis points cut. The discussion also covers the political landscape, including the narrowing odds for Trump and the implications for tax policies under a potential Harris administration. (10:51) Jeremy Schwartz continues with Stephen Lee from Logan Capital, focusing on large-cap growth, the real rotation in the market, and how technology is impacting various sectors. Stephen Lee highlights the impact of AI and digital tools on business operations. They also discuss the importance of earnings leadership, where companies demonstrate their ability to grow despite economic challenges. Lee emphasizes the role of good management and technological adoption in driving growth. They touch on the differences between passive and active investment strategies, noting the advantages of identifying growth opportunities earlier than indices. The conversation concludes with insights into sectors benefiting from structural themes like housing, and how companies are adapting to changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. Guest: Stephen is a founding principal of Logan Capital and the firm’s treasurer. As a manager of growth portfolios, Stephen plays an active role in the security selection for the firm’s large cap growth and mid-to-large cap growth portfolios. He is also a member of the Fixed Income team. Before founding Logan Capital with his partners in 1993, Stephen was employed at Mercer Capital Management and Merrill Lynch. He currently serves his community as a member of several investment committees and foundation boards. He is a graduate of Lehigh University with a BS in accounting. Learn more about Stephen at: https://logancapital.com/team/#stephen-s-lee Follow Stephen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/stephen-lee-b3a53a5

Show from 07/19/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the political dynamics and potential scenarios surrounding the upcoming elections, as well as the implications of recent economic data, including jobless claims, housing, and retail sales figures. Siegel provides insights on the Fed’s anticipated moves and the market rotations between large and small stocks, emphasizing that small stocks may continue to benefit if the Fed cuts rates. (11:28) Jeremy continues with guests Andrew Okrongly and Vin Kravec from the Common Fund, exploring the private credit space. They discuss the surge in demand for private credit and its role as a liquid credit replacement The group touches base on the various strategies within private credit, such as senior lending and asset-based finance. Vin highlights the importance of private credit in enhancing portfolio diversification and its potential for higher yields compared to traditional credit markets. Guests: Andrew Okrongly joined WisdomTree in 2022 as a Director on the Model Portfolios Team. He is responsible for the design and ongoing management of model portfolios and custom solutions for portfolio managers and advisors. Andrew is also a member of the WisdomTree Asset Allocation and Model Portfolio Investment Committees. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Andrew was a Director on the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) team at Commonfund, where he was responsible for macro-economic analysis and advising institutional clients on strategic and tactical asset allocation. Andrew began his career at BlackRock where he held a variety of fixed income and multi-asset investment roles. Andrew received a BBA degree from the University of Michigan and is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Vincent Kravec is a member of the Commonfund OCIO Investment team and is primarily responsible for investment monitoring, manager sourcing, rebalancing and reporting for investment portfolios with a focus in fixed income and credit strategies. Prior to joining Commonfund, Vincent was with Lazard Asset Management as a member of the Fixed Income operations staff. While at Lazard he was a trading assistant on the Emerging Markets team. He was also a supervisor in Fixed Income Accounting and had responsibilities in trading operations involving allocating trades and resolving trade problems for corporates, treasuries, municipals, asset backs and FX trading desks. Previous experience includes positions at Morgan Stanley, Alliance Capital and Evaluation Associates. Vincent earned his M.B.A. in from New York University’s Stern School of Business and his B.A. from Fairfield University. He is also a CFA charter holder. Learn more about Andrew at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/andrew-okrongly Follow Andrew on X(Twitter): @AOkrongly Learn more about Vin at: https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-teams/outsourced-cio-team Follow Vin on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/vin-kravec-cfa-2a610b10

Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz delve into market trends, focusing on inflation data's impact on Federal Reserve decisions. Siegel notes the positive CPI report potentially leading to rate cuts, while Schwartz discusses sector reactions to economic indicators and future rate adjustments.

David Rothschild, Senior economist at Microsoft, discusses online misinformation, media consumption nuances, algorithmic influence limits, user content choice, social media's role in political polarization, AI's societal effects, generative AI opportunities/challenges, Media Bias Detector insights, and future media/tech trends.