Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 11/15/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market developments, including CPI and PPI inflation data and its implications for the Fed's policy. Professor Siegel highlights the challenges of higher long-term interest rates and the potential for recalibration in the Fed’s neutral rate estimation. (8:00) Jeremy continues with guest Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat, who shares insights on the economic outlook, the role of betting markets in forecasting, and the evolving landscape of crypto assets. They also delve into the prospects for small-cap stocks, AI’s transformative potential, and the launch of Fundstrat's "Granny Shots" ETF, a strategy based on multi-thematic investments. Guest: Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy and Telecom Services. Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charterholder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club. Follow Thomas Lee on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-tom-lee Fundstrat: https://fundstrat.com/

Show from 11/08/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel reflect on the intense week in the markets, touching on the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, upcoming economic data, and the potential impacts of political changes following the U.S. election. Professor Siegel also notes the significant market reaction to the election results, particularly regarding fiscal policies, tariffs, and tax concerns. (13:10) Jeremy turns to his panel, with guests Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Christopher Gannatti, to delve into global shifts in trade, the nearshoring trend, and China’s economic outlook. They discuss the impacts of geopolitical events on market stability, as well as shifts in sectors like tech, real estate, and small-cap stocks. Additionally, the conversation highlights changing dynamics in U.S. housing, energy, and healthcare sectors under the current economic landscape. Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets. Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Follow Chri Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Follow Jeff Weiniger on X: https://x.com/JeffWeniger Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 11/01/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the recent jobs report, with Professor Siegel noting that while the labor market shows signs of slowing, it remains strong enough to avoid immediate recession concerns. They also talk about potential Fed rate cuts and Siegel’s view that bond market conditions may reflect defensiveness around political uncertainties ahead of the election. (16:00) Jeremy is joined by WisdomTree colleagues Sam Rines, Chris Gannatti, and Jeff Weniger to discuss upcoming election implications for markets, insights from recent earnings, and the outlook for China. They cover sector-specific earnings impacts, especially within tech, automotive, and real estate, and examine evolving investor sentiment towards China. The conversation wraps with insights on AI investment trends and the importance of data security uses of AI in financial data, and his venture investments in early-stage tech companies. Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets. Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Follow Chri Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Follow Jeff Weiniger on X: https://x.com/JeffWeniger Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/25/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel cover recent economic trends, highlighting a slight drop in jobless claims and strong third-quarter GDP forecasts. Professor Siegel notes market stability, a potential November Fed rate pause, and rising bond yields driven by election dynamics. (11:10) Jeremy continues with guest Howard Lindzon, co-founder of StockTwits and Social Leverage. They discuss the evolving “degenerate economy,” meme coins, and the role of companies like Google, Robinhood, and Coinbase in this speculative market space. Lindzon also shares insights on StockTwits’ growth, future uses of AI in financial data, and his venture investments in early-stage tech companies. Guest: Howard Lindzon is a Canadian Author, financial analyst, technical analyst and super angel investor. Lindzon manages a hedge fund, serves as managing partner of the holding company Social Leverage, limited partner at Knight's Bridge Capital Partners, and is the co-founder of StockTwits. Follow Howard on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardlindzon StockTwits: https://stocktwits.com/ Social Leverage:https://www.socialleverage.com

Show from 10/18/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market trends, starting with strong retail sales, the bond yield increases, and a solid third-quarter GDP outlook. Siegel highlights positive productivity growth and deposit expansion, suggesting that the neutral interest rate might be higher than expected. He also comments on upcoming midterm elections and their potential market impact. (10:00) Jeremy then turns to guest Phil Huber, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Cliffwater, who shares insights on the growing role of alternative investments. They delve into private markets, private debt, and the increasing interest in alternatives for portfolios, emphasizing the importance of diversification, liquidity management, and manager selection in these areas. Guest: As both a wealth management practitioner and an investment-industry thought leader, Phil Huber, CFA, CFP®, is uniquely qualified in helping investors design, implement, and stick with evidence-based portfolios built to fulfill long-term financial goals and objectives. Phil is the Head of Portfolio Solutions for Cliffwater, a leading alternative investment adviser and fund manager. Prior to joining Cliffwater in 2024, Phil was the Chief Investment Officer for Savant Wealth Management, a multi-billion dollar wealth management firm. Phil has been involved in the financial services industry since 2007. He earned a bachelor’s degree in finance from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He is a member of the CFA Society of Chicago. He is the author of The Allocator’s Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification. Phil has been featured by a number of media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, InvestmentNews, CityWire RIA Magazine, and Bloomberg TV. Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-huber More Insights from Cliffwater: https://www.cliffwater.com/Insights Direct Lending for the Long Run: https://www.cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle?docId=23740 Cliffwater Direct Lending Index: https://www.cliffwaterdirectlendingindex.com/

Show from 10/11/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest inflation data, particularly focusing on the CPI, PPI, and jobless claims. Professor Siegel expresses mixed reactions, noting improvements in the PPI but concerns about other inflation indicators like car insurance and housing costs. He also mentions the market's resilience and optimism despite weaker data, particularly regarding inflation and jobless claims, and forecasts potential future Fed rate cuts. (9:00) Jeremy is then joined by Anna Rathbun, Chief Investment Officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, who discusses the firm’s broad services and her perspective on economic data, including small business employment and inflation volatility. Rathbun emphasizes the uncertainty of the economic trajectory, explains the firm’s approach to portfolio construction, and shares insights into global markets, highlighting opportunities in India and Japan while cautioning against China. She also offers thoughts on U.S. geopolitical resilience and the potential for recession-driven tax policy shifts. Guest: Anna is the chief investment officer for CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CBIZ IAS), a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Anna is responsible for overseeing the investment activities of CBIZ IAS through the CBIZ national Investment Committee. She helps to set the direction of the firm as a member of the Executive Committee. Learn more about Anna at: https://www.cbiz.com/about-us/employee-directory/employee-details/anna-j-rathbun Follow Anna on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anna-rathbun-cfa-caia-aa561689

Show from 10/04/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel open this week’s episode discussing the strong market report, noting gains in productivity despite a decline in hours worked, and the potential for a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed. Professor Siegel highlights the recalibration of long-term interest rates, predicting they may settle around 4-4.5%, and emphasizes the lowered risk of recession. (12:00) Jeremy is then joined by Yashwant Bajaj, founder and CIO of Four Ships Asset Management, for a special tribute to Ken Taheny, who tragically passed away. The conversation covers the outlook for Japan, its managed yen depreciation, and its geopolitical positioning in the global supply chain, particularly in semiconductors and other strategic sectors. Yashwant also shares insights into Japan's potential industrial revitalization and the challenges and opportunities facing the country. Learn more about Yashwant at: https://www.four-ships.com/ Follow Yashwant on LinkedIn: https://sg.linkedin.com/in/yashwant-bajaj-68433053

Show from 09/27/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market data, focusing on US economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy. Professor Siegel highlights the increase in M2 money supply, home price trends, and the PCE deflator, suggesting the Fed may continue to lower rates. He shares his outlook on the 10-year treasury yield, China's economic stimulus, and Japanese equities before signing off. (10:00) Jeremy continues with guest Tom Morgan, who shares insights from his experience on Wall Street, his interest in human behavior, and his transition to a more holistic approach to decision-making. Tom discusses the impact of left versus right brain dominance on investing and personal life, emphasizing the importance of balance and intuition. He also talks about his network, the Leading Edge, where he helps people explore new identities and enhance their intuitive decision-making. Guest: Tom Morgan is a former financier and founder of The Leading Edge, a media platform and transformational community dedicated to sharing world-changing ideas and facilitating life-changing experiences. Learn more about Tom at: https://www.theleading-edge.org/ Follow Tom on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-morgan-3a619372

Show from 09/13/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week’s market movements, highlighting the implications of recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Professor Siegel emphasizes his expectation for a series of gradual rate cuts over the coming months, expressing concerns about the Fed’s pace of adjustments. (15:00) Jeremy continues the conversation with Wharton Professor Chris Geczy, who shares his insights on inflation, market dynamics, and his experiences with the intersection of AI and investment management. They delve into the implications of fiscal policy, the evolving role of AI in finance, and the importance of diversified investment strategies in today’s market environment. Guest: Chris Geczy has been on the Finance Department faculty at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania since 1997. He is Academic Director of the Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research. He is also Academic Director of the Wharton Wealth Management Initiative at Wharton Executive Education. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in finance and econometrics from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago (now the Booth School). Learn more about Chris at: https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/geczy/ Follow Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-geczy-ph-d-a69114

In a riveting discussion, Professor Jeremy Siegel shares his insights into the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to hold rates amid robust economic data, revealing his predictions for gradual rate cuts ahead. Alejandro Lopez-Lira, an Assistant Professor at the University of Florida, dives into the transformative role of AI in stock prediction, discussing his new book and the implications of large language models like ChatGPT in enhancing traditional financial strategies. Together, they explore the evolving intersection of technology and finance.