Forward Guidance
Blockworks
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
Episodes
Mentioned books
22 snips
May 13, 2026 • 49min
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
Neil Dutta, Chief U.S. economist at Renaissance Macro, explains how inflation, labor trends, and a big AI capex boom are reshaping policy. He discusses why the Fed’s easing bar has risen. Short takes cover supply-shock noise, the illusion of consumer strength, the K-shaped spending debate, and whether manufacturing and industrial policy are really turning the tide.
91 snips
May 9, 2026 • 54min
Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup
Markets surge while geopolitical strain and inflation simmer beneath the surface. Deep dive into oil supply stress, trading volatility, and why longer-dated oil exposure looks attractive. Discussion of AI-driven imports, labor disruption, and widening inequality. Exploration of gold’s comeback, housing and replacement-cost inflation, and the political risks of a ‘run-it-hot’ policy.
20 snips
May 6, 2026 • 50min
Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan, macro strategist and author of Macro Musings, explains how passive easing and loose financial conditions may be sowing the seeds for renewed inflation. He covers why growth held up despite higher oil, how forward guidance transmits policy, supply shocks and labor dynamics, and why a melt-up trade and commodity pressures matter for markets.
40 snips
Apr 30, 2026 • 1h 3min
Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup
Discussion on rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, and shifting market power away from central banks. Breakdown of recent Fed dissents and how global yields are breaking higher. Exploration of oil supply risks, Japan’s fiscal strain, and why deglobalization could mean a new inflationary regime.
37 snips
Apr 29, 2026 • 56min
The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou
Steve Hou, a senior quant researcher at Bloomberg with a PhD in macro and financial econometrics, explains why AI feels as big as the internet. He breaks down the massive AI-driven capex build-out, rising compute and pricing dynamics, and why apparent productivity gains may be misleading. He also discusses physical bottlenecks, implications for monetary policy, and whether AI can meaningfully fix U.S. debt.
49 snips
Apr 24, 2026 • 1h 4min
The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup
They parse a high-profile Fed hearing and mounting policy uncertainty. They spotlight AI-driven capex and data centers as the economy’s real growth engine. They map shifting capital, housing and labor dynamics alongside dollar dominance and geopolitical pressures. They debate commercial real estate, credit risks and why inflation-driven rotations reshape markets.
77 snips
Apr 22, 2026 • 59min
Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and liquidity-cycle expert. He argues global liquidity is turning lower and outlines why the liquidity cycle diverges from the business cycle. Discussion covers yield-curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity and bond volatility. He also maps late-cycle signals to commodities, crypto, and positioning ahead of potential turbulence.
54 snips
Apr 16, 2026 • 37min
Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup
Markets racing higher feel disconnected from fundamentals. They dig into how derivatives, centralized flows, and retail frenzy are reshaping price moves. The dollar’s weakness, negative real yields, and policy incentives into the midterms get heavy focus. They also highlight AI mania, narrative-driven single-stock swings, sticky services inflation, and risks to market integrity.
64 snips
Apr 15, 2026 • 48min
How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi
Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor who worked with Stanley Druckenmiller, explains how AI is changing macro investing. He discusses AI-driven idea generation, solving small-sample macro problems, execution and trading agents. Conversations cover niche datasets, preventing hallucinations with code-first outputs, and whether AI compresses or expands alpha.
60 snips
Apr 10, 2026 • 57min
Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
Markets caught between geopolitical ceasefire talk and an AI-driven productivity boom. They debate whether positioning or fundamentals are driving the rebound. Discussion covers explosive AI compute demand, tech and credit risks, China as a bond haven, gold’s comeback, and where to place selective bets in this messy regime.
