Forward Guidance The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
24 snips
May 13, 2026 
Neil Dutta, Chief U.S. economist at Renaissance Macro, explains how inflation, labor trends, and a big AI capex boom are reshaping policy. He discusses why the Fed’s easing bar has risen. Short takes cover supply-shock noise, the illusion of consumer strength, the K-shaped spending debate, and whether manufacturing and industrial policy are really turning the tide.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
AI CapEx Is A Labor Market Tailwind
- AI data center CapEx is a notable source of employment gains, especially in non-residential construction and specialty trades.
- Dutta points to data center buildout driving hiring in construction and some manufacturing breadth.
Consumer Strength Is Illusory In The Data
- Real consumer spending is weak despite headline impressions; nominal goods consumption rose only ~3.5% year-over-year.
- Dutta says real consumption under 2% and weaker nominal income growth mean price shocks erode spending buffers.
Equity Wealth Is Masking Income Weakness
- Equity wealth effects are propping consumer spending despite weak disposable income growth.
- Dutta cites disposable income up ~1% real while consumption ~2%, implying savings drawdown supported by rising equity values and RSU flows.