Today, we are joined by David Beckworth, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings, for a deep dive into the biggest macro questions shaping markets right now. David explains why central banks struggle to respond to supply shocks, why inflation expectations are more fragile than policymakers admit, and how frameworks like nominal GDP targeting could offer a more robust path forward. We explore the collision between geopolitical shocks and AI-driven productivity, the hidden consequences of quantitative easing, and the growing tension between monetary policy and fiscal sustainability. From stablecoins and the future of the dollar to the Fed’s balance sheet and financial system plumbing, this episode unpacks the forces quietly reshaping the global economy, and why policymakers may be less in control than we think.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow David on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Stablecoins, financial stability, and uncertain impact

01:00 - David Beckworth’s path into macroeconomics

05:43 - How central banks should respond to supply shocks

08:56 - Why policymakers struggle to separate supply vs demand

11:58 - Inflation expectations and post-COVID sensitivity

14:46 - Are central banks over-reliant on flawed inflation models?

18:49 - AI as a positive supply shock: hype vs reality

22:00 - Productivity booms, deflation, and policy challenges

25:11 - Kevin Warsh, AI optimism, and the Fed’s future direction

29:33 - QE, QT, and the long-term impact on financial markets

33:28 - The “ratchet effect” and why the Fed can’t shrink easily

37:59 - Liquidity: abundant or an illusion?

41:38 - Are markets addicted to central bank liquidity?

44:21 - Fiscal dominance and the long-term risk to central banks

53:54 - Stablecoins, dollar dominance, and global demand

59:10 - Private credit and the evolving financial system

01:00:49 - Books, learning, and building a career in macro

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

Forward Guidance

The AI CapEx Boom and Its Macro Flywheel

The AI-powered Podcast Player