Forward Guidance Central Bank Control Is Breaking | Weekly Roundup
40 snips
Apr 30, 2026 Discussion on rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, and shifting market power away from central banks. Breakdown of recent Fed dissents and how global yields are breaking higher. Exploration of oil supply risks, Japan’s fiscal strain, and why deglobalization could mean a new inflationary regime.
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Fed Dissents Reveal Policy Fragmentation
- The Fed's unanimity is breaking as dissent rises, signaling a less predictable policy regime.
- Felix, Quinn, and Tyler note four dissents and splits over an easing bias, implying future monetary soap opera under incoming Fed leadership.
Balance Sheet Expansion Masks 'Hawkish' Talk
- The Fed's balance sheet is expanding again via RMP purchases despite hawkish rhetoric, creating de facto QE.
- Quinn highlights rising Treasury holdings and MBS declines, noting balance sheet growth back to May 2025 levels.
Shift Into Hard Assets And Cyclicals
- Prepare portfolios for an inflationary growth regime by owning real assets and commodities.
- Felix recommends shifting from long-duration tech into hard assets and cyclical, capex-heavy names as supply chains retool.