Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.  In this episode, we feature our conversations with Bloomberg Anchor Joumanna Bercetche and Bloomberg Oil strategist Julian Lee. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Norman Roule, Middle East security expert, breaks down strikes, IRGC capacity and regional escalation risks. Stephen Parker, macro strategist at J.P. Morgan, debates market complacency, tech and dollar leadership, and range-bound rates. Francisco Blanch, commodities head at BofA, maps oil price scenarios, refinery and Strait of Hormuz risks and likely stockpiling trends.

Alexis Christoforous, market headlines pro; Tricia Scarlata, college-savings expert; Julian Lee, oil and shipping strategist; Joumanna Bercetche, Middle East correspondent. They discuss strikes hitting Dubai airport and Gulf ports, Iran’s targeting of shipping routes, calls for multinational protection of the Strait of Hormuz and allies’ reluctance, plus knock-on risks to oil flows and petrochemical feedstocks.

Tim O'Brien, political strategist and Bloomberg Opinion editor, Michael McKee, international economics and Fed policy analyst, and June Grasso, legal analyst from Bloomberg Law, unpack a judge's rejection of subpoenas to the Fed. They discuss the judge's reasoning, Rule 17 limits, impacts on Powell and a potential confirmation delay, and the political theater and market implications surrounding the ruling.

Conversation covers the strategic risk of a Strait of Hormuz disruption and its potential to spark a major oil shock. Discussion contrasts Hormuz with other global chokepoints and the broader market implications. Another segment explores how retailization and gated funds can create run-like dynamics and what that means for industry resilience.

Lt. General Robert Walsh, retired senior military leader focused on maritime security. Eugene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, expert in port operations and supply-chain resilience. They discuss ships stalled around the Strait of Hormuz, rising bunker fuel and pump prices, regionalizing supply chains, mine and escort preparations, and coalition responses to maritime threats.

Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital, short on private-credit mechanics and liquidity quirks. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chicago Council leader and foreign policy expert, on widening conflict and alliance strain. Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg economist, on Strait of Hormuz risks and oil-price shock scenarios. They discuss energy disruptions, geopolitical consequences, and private credit stress in concise, lively conversation.

Ed Morse, a senior oil analyst at Hartree Partners, and Audrey Childe-Freeman, a Bloomberg Intelligence FX analyst, dig into oil and currency moves. They explore SPR releases versus threats to the Strait of Hormuz. They contrast Norway and Sweden currency dynamics and map risk scenarios that could lift the dollar.

Libby Cantrill, PIMCO public policy lead, on SPR moves and political fallout. Dr. Jorge León, Rystad Energy geopolitical head, on supply shocks, Strait of Hormuz effects and offshore storage. Keith Lerner, Truist market strategist, on earnings resilience, buy-the-dip behavior and how oil risks could reshape market forecasts.

Gita Gopinath, former IMF deputy MD and Harvard economist, warns how a prolonged Iran conflict could slow global growth and raise inflation. Ed Morse, energy markets veteran, analyzes Gulf disruptions, Strait of Hormuz risks, and why strategic reserves may not be enough. Charles Cantor, senior portfolio manager, discusses tech capex, earnings and capital allocation in a stressed macro backdrop.