Bloomberg Surveillance The Risks of a Prolonged Iran War
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Mar 12, 2026 Gita Gopinath, former IMF deputy MD and Harvard economist, warns how a prolonged Iran conflict could slow global growth and raise inflation. Ed Morse, energy markets veteran, analyzes Gulf disruptions, Strait of Hormuz risks, and why strategic reserves may not be enough. Charles Cantor, senior portfolio manager, discusses tech capex, earnings and capital allocation in a stressed macro backdrop.
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Emerging Markets Face Acute Energy Strain
- Emerging market importers face acute stress from simultaneous higher oil prices and a stronger dollar.
- Gita Gopinath notes rationing and greater energy dependency in EMs makes pass-through and adjustment difficult.
Dollar Reasserts Safe Haven Role
- The dollar's safe-haven role persisted at the war's onset as uncertainty spurred dollar strength and EM currency depreciation.
- Gita Gopinath links capital flow pullback to weaker EM markets while US stocks held up given net energy exporter status.
Goldin's Gender Economics Changed Policy Thinking
- Gita Gopinath praises Claudia Goldin's pioneering gender economics and its policy relevance for fertility and labor-force participation.
- She highlights Goldin's early choice to work on gender when it was unfashionable and its impact on policy design.
