Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ed Morse & Audrey Childe-Freeman
Mar 12, 2026
Ed Morse, a senior oil analyst at Hartree Partners, and Audrey Childe-Freeman, a Bloomberg Intelligence FX analyst, dig into oil and currency moves. They explore SPR releases versus threats to the Strait of Hormuz. They contrast Norway and Sweden currency dynamics and map risk scenarios that could lift the dollar.
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Strait Of Hormuz Cuts Are A Structural Risk To Oil Flows
- Global oil flows are being disrupted by reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz, trimming previous volumes from ~16–18 mb/d to about 10 mb/d.
- Edward Morse warns that even temporary releases of supply (a few mb/d) won't fully offset the longer-term risks from Iran's restricted lanes and coastal weapons presence.
Iran's Tactics Create Ongoing Premium For Gulf Oil
- Iran's actions have created persistent transit disruption rather than a one-off shock, raising the premium on security-sensitive crude routes.
- Morse notes Iran allows selected sanctioned vessels and increased its own exports, meaning replacements for lost Gulf flow are incomplete.
Oil Prices Reached $100 Amid Gulf Concerns
- Brent crude returned to about $100 per barrel during the show, reflecting market sensitivity to the Gulf disruptions.
- Tom Keene highlighted that market professionals still try to translate complex supply moves into clearer, less-jargon explanations for listeners.
