Eurodollar University

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's attention. There is evidence for this, too. Maybe more than you'd think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisGreen Street CREhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIFederal Reserve Beige Book November 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfBloomberg Odd LotsWhy Multifamily Is the Next Stress Point in Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/why-multifamily-is-the-next-stress-point-in-commercial-real-estateTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Why is the Fed pivoting? More importantly, why now? We have to consider a couple of options since central bank officials are privy to more data than we have. Not that they know what to do with it, but if there's something they see perhaps we don't yet it's worth figuring it out ahead of time. After all, with rates plunging markets are in a rush to get somewhere already. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

This podcast discusses the global decline in bond yields and attributes it to more than just a possible US recession. It explores the immediate threats from China, including the scale of the real estate problem and its impact on the economy. The podcast also analyzes the interconnectedness of the global economy and the role of the Euro Dollar system. It further discusses the impact of China's economy on global interest rates, highlighting persistent downside risks and weak retail sales.

If you are interested, we are having a holiday sale. You can check it out here: https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1The FOMC and its dots. Stocks took them one way, bonds another. After pounding higher-for-longer all year, suddenly officials just gave up on it like nothing. That's a bit curious already. We need to understand what lower rates really mean, both in the marketplace and why the Federal Reserve (and others) are suddenly in agreement with bonds.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell Speech December 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231201a.htmJay Powell Press Conference December 13, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231213.pdfFOMC SEP - the December dotshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Is the bond market wrong?  Has it been wrong in the past? How useful are these esoteric indications and curves? Do they actually corroborate with anything in reality?On the day when the Fed meets and all eyes are on interest rates, let's go through an example where it looked like the markets got it all wrong but in reality they got every last bit right. What curves were really telling us then, and what that can tell us about today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Traders Turbocharge ECB Bets by Predicting 2.5% Rate in 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/markets-turbocharge-bets-that-ecb-will-lead-world-on-rate-cutsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

The podcast discusses the significance of focusing on the energy sector over the Federal Reserve and CPI. It explores the decrease in oil and gasoline prices, the concept of Contango in the WTI futures curve, and the contradiction between supply cuts and Contango in the oil futures market. The extensive weakness in the oil market, including spreading Contango, is analyzed along with its implications on the global economy, highlighting the decline in demand worldwide.

The podcast discusses the spookiness in the global bond market, focusing on China's deflation and money market problems. It explores the impact on global rate curves and suggests that banks with exposure to China might be hedging by investing in safe assets. The lack of liquidity in interbank markets and Moody's downgrades are also discussed, along with China's economic weakness and the ineffectiveness of stimulus measures. The podcast analyzes deflationary tendencies and global risks arising from China's financial issues.

Macro Alf discusses the impact of increased inflation, yield curve inversion and recession, importance of understanding the bond market, forecast for consumer prices, insights from a former bond trader, and risks in the stock market.

November payrolls beat expectations yet again as the cycle stretches farther. Even so, the labor market is exhibiting telltale signs of recession anyway - not that it will matter to the soft landing narrative. Industries accounting for half of all private US jobs are cutting them. Contraction is widespread already, just not widespread enough to be accepted more broadly. The way things are going, and the way markets are pricing, still just a matter of time.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement