Eurodollar University

Bonds are screaming bloody murder. By contrast, stocks are taking everything in stride, betting more strongly on disinflation, soft landing, a few rate cuts, every possible Goldilocks angle. Or so it would seem. What do equities really price? Not fundamentals like "liquidity" as is so often claimed nor the economy. Valuations are a fiction. History shows us where the heart of the NYSE really lies, which means there is substantial risk diverging from bonds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC: A brief history of the 401(k), which changed how Americans retirehttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/a-brief-history-of-the-401k-which-changed-how-americans-retire.htmlRobert Shiller 2013 Nobel Prize Lecturehttps://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/shiller-lecture.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #stocks #retirement

Exploring contrasting views on rate cuts as a solution and a comparison to the 2008 financial crisis. Analysis of rate cuts during the 2008 downturn as symbolic and reactive measures. Discussion on upcoming rate cuts and comparison to previous market conditions. Analyzing the differences between past and present economic problems. Effects of pandemic lockdowns on the market, including lower crude oil prices and indications of lower long-term interest rates.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserveMore big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hedging there's not much to be upbeat about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to why therefore what. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreFederal Reserve Beige Book November 29, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfISM for November 2023https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/CNBC: Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars to a record, as consumers seek bargainshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/black-friday-weekend-shopping-turnout-soars-to-a-record.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

The podcast explores the challenges China is facing in the global economy and the need for external support, government stimulus masks economic weakness but fails to bring long-term improvement, analysis of Shanghai Steel and rebar prices, discussion on declining investment and weak employment conditions in China, exploration of fluctuations in China's yuan and its impact on the economy.

The podcast explores the recent tanking of bond yields and how economic and monetary fundamentals, rather than inflation or treasury supply, are driving interest rates. It discusses signals from the US Treasury market and analyzes the changes in the yield curve. The podcast also highlights the decline in bond rates worldwide, indicating potential economic trouble and financial volatility.

Banks worldwide are preparing for potential instability by hoarding liquidity, derisking, and engaging in hedging activities. The decreasing rates in the 52-week bill auction indicate anticipation of lower interest rates. De-risking strategies and cash hoarding among US banks reflect economic uncertainty. The decline in consumer loans and the contraction of lending portfolios by European banks further highlight cautious behavior. Overall, banks are taking precautions and preparing for something.

The podcast discusses the hoarding of liquidity by banks worldwide, the role of the foreign repo pool in managing US dollar liabilities, the decline in balance sheet supply and dollar squeeze in the euro dollar system, the decrease in treasuries and rising cash in the US banking system, and the liquidity shortage and defensive behavior in the global banking system.