Eurodollar University

The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFull text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year messagehttps://english.news.cn/20231231/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611/c.htmlNikkei Analysis: China's spy agency now watches for doomsayershttps://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-s-spy-agency-now-watches-for-doomsayersCNN China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/economy/china-economy-challenges-2024-intl-hnk/index.htmlBloomberg China Home Sales Fall Again as Policy Shifts Fail to Stem Declinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-31/china-home-sales-fall-again-as-policy-shifts-fail-to-stem-declineTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates #china #banks #xijinping

For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#1940s #1970s #inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates

Last Chance for Christmas Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Marcy 28, 2007https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20070328a.htmFCIC Final Reporthttps://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-FCIC/pdf/GPO-FCIC.pdfNew Yorker Anatomy of a Meltdownhttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/12/01/anatomy-of-a-meltdownSt Louis Fed (2009) The Financial Crisis and U.S. Cross-Border Financial Flowshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/articles/crossborder/default.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#gfc2022 #gfc2023 #2008 #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC December 1974https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcmod19741217.pdfFOMC July 1981https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdfFOMC June 2000https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #repo #dollarshortage

This podcast explores the Federal Reserve's pivot towards rate cuts as insurance against economic uncertainties, and the disparities between GDP and GDI as measures of economic output. It also discusses the dilemma of prioritizing inflation fighting over addressing economic weakness, the link between rate cuts and unemployment uncertainty, and the importance of GDI as a recession predictor and indicator of weakness in the real economy.

The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarChristmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's movements is...eurodollar. You don't have to take my word for it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBIS WP 592 The dollar, bank leverage and the deviation from covered interest parity https://www.bis.org/publ/work592.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak — here’s why it mattershttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/bank-of-japan-loosens-ycc-cites-greater-flexibility-and-jolts-markets.htmlBloomberg Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Nearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/boj-rate-hike-bets-ramp-up-as-ueda-and-himino-spook-tradersBloomberg BOJ Deputy Chief Hints That Negative Rate End May Be Closerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/boj-s-deputy-chief-hints-that-end-of-negative-rate-may-be-closerCNBC Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-easy policy amid ‘extremely high’ uncertainties; yen tumbleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/boj-bank-of-japan-sticks-to-ultra-easy-monetary-policy-in-light-of-high-uncertainties.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #collateral