The Rate Guy

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks.

They break down oil’s wild price swings and why sudden commodity moves matter for recession risk. They discuss the historical link between rising oil and interest rates. They explain why central bankers focus on core inflation that strips out volatile commodities. They cover market volatility in rates and options and a recent court ruling affecting Fed leadership.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.

They riff on Olympic mascots, stoats, and the awkwardness of giving stuffed animals to medalists. A major court ruling on tariffs and who actually paid for them gets unpacked. Market moves get scored, including pressure on 10-year yields and Core PCE heating up. Hiring puzzles and GDP surprises are debated. There's also a bit of national pride over U.S. hockey gold.

They dig into why job headlines misled markets and the odd timing of the jobs report. They discuss revisions, the birth-death adjustment, and which sectors actually added jobs. They cover a cooler inflation print, shelter’s role in disinflation, and how all this shapes odds of Fed rate cuts and treasury market moves.

Discussion of how Kevin Warsh won the Fed nomination and the political forces behind it. Exploration of his opposition to quantitative easing and plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. Examination of his inflation-first stance and willingness to tolerate higher unemployment. Debate over whether institutional and political constraints could block or limit his agenda.

They break down the Fed meeting highlights and why rates stayed put. They discuss surprising dissents and the political dynamics on the board. Reporters ask tough questions Powell avoids. Powell’s reasons for attending a Supreme Court hearing get unpacked. They cover Powell’s advice for future leadership and the Fed’s stance on inflation, labor, and the timing of rate cuts.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in. Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed. See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!

We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In this episode we discuss the historical impact of this move and the impact it may have. We also reveal something that had JP completely shook. You can't make this up folks, 2026 is off to an unprecedented start. Link to Jerome Powell's statement And we will touch on this again, but we mentioned the LoanBoss redesigned website and completely rebuilt software. So if you want to check it out - here you go.

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026.