The Rate Guy CNBC Talking Heads Fall For The Job Headlines...Again
Feb 15, 2026
They dig into why job headlines misled markets and the odd timing of the jobs report. They discuss revisions, the birth-death adjustment, and which sectors actually added jobs. They cover a cooler inflation print, shelter’s role in disinflation, and how all this shapes odds of Fed rate cuts and treasury market moves.
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CBRE Drop Framed By SaaSpocalypse Story
- JP Conklin jokes CBRE's stock drop tied to two leaders leaving but ties it to the wider SaaSpocalypse hitting old-school brokerages.
- He links recent tech market cap losses to seismic moves that affected broker stocks like Seabury.
Jobs Headline Misleads On Underlying Weakness
- The January jobs print looked strong but revisions dragged 2025's annual total dramatically lower, exposing the headline as misleading.
- JP Conklin warns to wait for multiple months and methodology updates before celebrating labor strength.
Job Gains Concentrated In Few Sectors
- Sector detail matters: healthcare and social services drove most job gains while most other sectors lost jobs.
- Small business employment has contracted for months, signaling weakness at the economy's traditional engine.