The Rate Guy Tariffs, Medals, and Stoats
Feb 23, 2026
They riff on Olympic mascots, stoats, and the awkwardness of giving stuffed animals to medalists. A major court ruling on tariffs and who actually paid for them gets unpacked. Market moves get scored, including pressure on 10-year yields and Core PCE heating up. Hiring puzzles and GDP surprises are debated. There's also a bit of national pride over U.S. hockey gold.
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Lindsey Vonn's ACL Run As A Metaphor For Risk
- JP recounts Lindsey Vonn racing on a shredded ACL to illustrate extreme risk-taking in skiing.
- He contrasts that with his wife's multiple knee surgeries to poke fun at toughness comparisons.
Tariff Reversal Is A Consumer Windfall
- The Supreme Court struck down Trump's broad tariff scheme, which benefits American consumers by removing a tax they were effectively paying.
- New York Fed research shows US consumers bore about 90% of the first year of tariff costs, roughly $150 billion in revenue at stake for refunds.
Tariff Reversal Puts Upward Pressure On Treasuries
- Reversing tariffs removes a revenue source, which likely increases Treasury borrowing and pushes 10-year yields higher.
- JPMorgan research suggested this could add roughly 25–30 basis points to the 10-year in coming weeks.