The Foreign Affairs Interview

Jonathan Czin, a former CIA and NSC China analyst now at Brookings, discusses Beijing’s view that U.S. policy is in flux and how China is seizing opportunities. He explores Xi’s shift from defensive to offensive diplomacy, rare-earth leverage, military purges, and Chinese tech and industrial strategies. Short, sharp takes on how China reads U.S. unpredictability and why summit diplomacy matters.

Lael Brainard, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve and director of the National Economic Council, shares her insights on the shifting landscape of American economic power. She critiques Trump's tariff policies, emphasizing their harm to alliances and domestic industries. Brainard also discusses the risks to the Federal Reserve's independence and the implications of a declining dollar. She advocates for strategic tariffs and highlights urgent domestic issues like healthcare and housing affordability, urging a focus on constructive solutions over punitive measures.

Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the escalating protests in Iran and the regime's fragility. He highlights the existential nature of the current unrest, driven by economic failures and widespread discontent. Sadjadpour explains the declining influence of ideology within the regime and predicts Khamenei's violent response to maintain control. He also explores potential post-Khamenei scenarios and cautions against external military interventions that could further polarize the nation.

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, provides insights into the volatile situation in Venezuela following Nicolás Maduro's capture. He discusses Delcy Rodríguez's precarious balancing act and the military's influence on power dynamics. Former U.S. official Juan S. González shares perspectives on U.S. policy and the regional implications of recent events. Both experts highlight the challenges of engaging the opposition and warn against potential chaos from heavy-handed interventions.

Historian Odd Arne Westad dives deep into China's historical context and its implications for current U.S. foreign policy. He addresses the risks of drawing parallels between China and the Soviet Union, highlighting a shift toward multipolarity in a global economy. Westad draws connections to pre-World War I tensions, framing Taiwan as a potential flashpoint. He warns that China's ties with Russia may entangle it in future conflicts, and emphasizes the necessity of cautious U.S.-China relations to avert escalation.

Daron Acemoglu, a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his insights on institutions and economic development, discusses the multifaceted crisis facing liberal democracy. He explores the limited economic impact of AI, emphasizing the need for thoughtful adoption to avoid a tech-driven divide. Acemoglu critiques U.S. strategies undermining innovation and highlights China’s mix of strengths and weaknesses in tech. He advocates for stronger local institutions and a working-class liberalism that prioritizes community and shared prosperity in rebuilding trust and navigating crises.

Kori Schake, a senior fellow and defense policy expert, critiques Trump's National Security Strategy, calling it a mix of solipsism and fear. She highlights its failures in assessing global allies and rivals, accusing it of undermining U.S. power while focusing too much on cultural politics. Schake explains how the administration’s actions, like controversial military strikes, demonstrate a misunderstanding of American power dynamics. She warns that politicizing the military risks damaging public trust and professional norms.

Emma Ashford, a foreign policy analyst and author, champions a restrained U.S. foreign policy as she explores the shift to a multipolar world. She critiques the Biden and Trump administrations' strategies, advocating for a nuanced understanding of international power dynamics. Ashford discusses the political risks surrounding U.S. withdrawal from conflicts, the complexities of supporting Ukraine, and the importance of promoting pragmatic engagement with adversaries. She emphasizes the need for realistic defense strategies and highlights upcoming geopolitical challenges.

Ben Buchanan, a technology and national-security scholar who advised the White House on AI, shares insights on the shifting landscape of artificial intelligence amidst U.S.-China competition. He warns that America’s AI dominance is at risk without better coordination between the government and tech sectors. Buchanan discusses the importance of energy for large-scale AI, the implications of government policies on chip exports, and argues for a grand bargain to strengthen American AI while addressing national security concerns.

In this engaging discussion, S. C. M. Paine, a strategy expert from the U.S. Naval War College, delves into the age-old contest between maritime and continental powers. She explains how the U.S. has historically thrived as a maritime force but warns of a concerning shift in strategy. Paine contrasts the territorial focus of Russia and China with maritime trade's advantages, highlighting the risks of tariffs and protectionism. She underscores the importance of maintaining a rules-based maritime order and reflects on historical warnings to avert future conflicts.